079
FXUS61 KBUF 191451
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
951 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED FOR SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING
COUNTIES, THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER, AND THE LAKE ERIE
NEARSHORES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED
FLOWS AND ICE JAMS.
2) ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH PRIMARILY RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY FRIDAY, AND WINTRY MIX EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO, CHANGING OVER TO ELEVATED SNOWFALL FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
ELEVATED FLOWS AND ICE JAMS.
A WARMER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING, AND REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. AFTER MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
TODAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL AVERAGE ONE QUARTER TO FOUR
TENTHS OF AN INCH. COLDER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CAUSE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF A WARMER AIRMASS AND RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS, AND THE NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
SNOWMELT AND POTENTIALLY LEAD TO THE BREAKUP OF ICE ON AREA CREEKS
AND STREAMS. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A VERY LOW CHANCE OF
AREA CREEKS REACHING FLOOD STAGE, AND A 5-25% CHANCE OF A FEW
BUFFALO AREA CREEKS REACHING ACTION STAGE. BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF
HOURS ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH FRIDAY, AND OUR LOCAL CRITERIA TO
DETERMINE ICE JAM RISK, THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRIMARILY RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY FRIDAY, AND
WINTRY MIX EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, CHANGING OVER TO ELEVATED SNOWFALL
FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OFF THE COLORADO ROCKIES THIS
MORNING, CROSSING THE PLAINS...WHILE DRIVING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC LIFT, COMBINED WITH A
TROWAL ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN, AND TO THE NORTH,
WINTRY MIX, ARRIVING ACROSS WNY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST PRIMARILY PLAIN ACROSS WNY AS INCREASING
SOUTHEAST FLOW PROMOTED TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT
PRECIPITATION ONSET. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT, AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION A DEEPER LAYER OF SUBFREEZING AIR WILL BRING
CONCERNS FOR WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN, SLEET AND SNOW.
THIS SOUTHEAST FLOW COULD BECOME A BIT GUSTY FOR THE DOWNSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A 45 KNOT LLJ AT 1-2K FEET. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 40 MPH NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM RANGE FROM A QUARTER
TO A HALF AN INCH FOR WNY, WITH A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE...WITH
LREF DISPLAYING A 50 TO 60% CHANCE FOR OVER 4 INCHES OF SNOW FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE
THE PERIOD WITH GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...THIS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE ON THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACK FOOTHILLS...WHILE THE HILLS OF SW NYS MAY HAVE 1-2 INCHES
OF SNOW ACCUMULATE. AS COLD AIR DEEPENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND A
SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FOR THE 12Z TAFS POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN WITH AREAS OF
DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS BRINGING LIFR OR LOWER FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN TIER (KJHW), WHILE IFR TO MVFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE FOUND FARTHER TO THE NORTH. WHILE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN VFR TODAY, IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ACROSS WNY WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A 45 KNOT
LLJ AROUND 1-2K FEET. WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONGER TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS THE STATE LINE. THIS WILL BRING LLWS TO THE KJHW TAF, AND
AT TIMES CLIP KBUF/KIAG TONIGHT.
THE NEXT THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO
ALLOW FOR PLAIN RAIN FOR WNY, WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS LOWERING BACK
TO IFR/MVFR FOR WNY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR WITH RAIN/SNOW LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH SNOW LIKELY EAST OF BOTH LAKES. A
CHANCE OF SNOW ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY
EAST OF BOTH LAKES.
MARINE
EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BASIN
OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES REMAINING
IN PLACE. A SURFACE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM, BRINGING RENEWED HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.
PLEASE NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
CONTINUE TO BE ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE
FORECAST.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ043-
044.
DISCUSSION...HSK/THOMAS/TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS/TMA
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