935
FXUS61 KBUF 192356
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
656 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND
FREEZING RAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED
FLOWS AND ICE JAMS.
2) A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK, AND WINTRY MIX EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO, CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.
3) WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
ELEVATED FLOWS AND ICE JAMS.
A WARMER AIRMASS WILL TO MOVE INTO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING,
AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT.
A ROUND OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL AVERAGE ONE QUARTER TO A HALF INCH. COLDER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND CAUSE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF A WARMER AIRMASS AND RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS, AND THE NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
SNOWMELT AND POTENTIALLY LEAD TO THE BREAKUP OF ICE ON AREA CREEKS
AND STREAMS. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A VERY LOW CHANCE OF
AREA CREEKS REACHING FLOOD STAGE, AND A 10-30% CHANCE OF A FEW
BUFFALO AREA CREEKS REACHING ACTION STAGE. BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF
HOURS ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH FRIDAY, AND OUR LOCAL CRITERIA TO
DETERMINE ICE JAM RISK, THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK, AND WINTRY
MIX EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT, WHILE
DRIVING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. ISENTROPIC LIFT, COMBINED WITH A TROWAL ALOFT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STARTING LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGESTING RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AS INCREASING SOUTHEAST
FLOW SENDS IN WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET.
NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT, A DEEPER LAYER OF SUB-FREEZING
AIR WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN,
SLEET AND SNOW MAKING FOR SLIPPERY DRIVING CONDITIONS. DEPENDING
ON WHERE ANY FREEZING RAIN LASTS THE LONGEST, ONE TENTH TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE MAY ACCUMULATE, WITH THE GREATEST RISK
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE, WITH LATEST REFS
DISPLAYING A 60 TO 75% CHANCE OF OVER 4 INCHES OF SNOW FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE TUG HILL AND ABOUT A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
PERIOD WITH GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS COLDER AIR DEEPENS.
THE HILLS OF SOUTHWEST NEW YORK MAY HAVE A 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
A SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY FOR THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS
OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 45 KNOTS
CROSSES THE REGION. BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, SOUTHWEST
WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 40 MPH NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF EARLY EVENING...LOWER STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO
PERSIST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH THE EARLIER CLEARING OVER FAR
WNY NOW IN THE PROCESS OF SHRINKING UP FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING/MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...RESULTING IN
IFR CEILINGS RETURNING TO KBUF AND MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING TO KJHW.
MEANWHILE...AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ARE SEEING MVFR CEILINGS.
AS WE PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT...ONGOING MELTING OF THE SNOW PACK WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...FURTHER
SUPPORTING PERSISTENT STRATUS AND FOG. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND
LOCATION OF THE LOWEST CONDITIONS IS LOW, BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO WILL GENERALLY
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE TO
THE ESE/SE THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATER ON IN THE NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE LIKELY TONIGHT AT KJHW AND
POSSIBLE AT KBUF AS A 40-45 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES THE
REGION. THE LATTER MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME LOCALIZED SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE
SOUTHWEST OF BUFFALO.
THE NEXT SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR RAIN FOR WNY...A WINTRY MIX, INCLUDING FREEZING
RAIN IS LIKELY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND MAY IMPACT KART FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM'S TRAILING COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND MAY GUST TO 35-40 KNOTS NEAR
AND A LITTLE INLAND OF LAKE ERIE AND THE NIAGARA RIVER...INCLUDING
AT KBUF/KIAG.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH SNOW LIKELY EAST OF BOTH LAKES. A
CHANCE OF SNOW ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY
EAST OF BOTH LAKES.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BASIN
OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES REMAINING
IN PLACE. A SURFACE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM, BRINGING RENEWED HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.
PLEASE NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
CONTINUE TO BE ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE
FORECAST.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ043-
044.
DISCUSSION...HSK/JJR/THOMAS/TMA
AVIATION...JJR/TMA
MARINE...THOMAS/TMA
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