115
FXUS61 KBUF 200658
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
158 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND GUSTS INCREASED ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED
FLOWS AND ICE JAMS.
2) A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NY THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND TRAVEL COULD BE DIFFICULT.
3) NOR'EASTER TO GRAZE BY OUR REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
ELEVATED FLOWS AND ICE JAMS.
A WARMER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK TODAY. A ROUND OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE THIS MORNING AND RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL AVERAGE ONE QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ACROSS WESTERN NY,
AND UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
COLDER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND RAIN WILL CHANGE
TO SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.
THE COMBINATION OF A WARMER AIRMASS AND RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS, AND THE NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
SNOWMELT AND POTENTIALLY LEAD TO THE BREAKUP OF ICE ON AREA CREEKS
AND STREAMS. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A VERY LOW CHANCE OF
AREA CREEKS REACHING FLOOD STAGE, AND A 10-30% CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
BUFFALO AREA CREEK LOCATION REACHING ACTION STAGE. BASED ON THE
AMOUNT OF HOURS ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH FRIDAY, AND OUR LOCAL
CRITERIA TO DETERMINE ICE JAM RISK, THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM
FLOODING IS LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK, AND WINTRY
MIX EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID-WEST WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. DEEP LAYER
ASCENT WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW WHILE A SURGE
OF HIGH THETA-E AIR WITHIN IN A MOIST AIRMASS LIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS MORNING. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND LARGE SCALE FORCING
WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. A SOUTHEAST WIND WILL SUPPORT DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ACROSS ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY THIS
MORNING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THIS MORNING AND RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN NY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY AT ONSET. WARMER AIR ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SUGGEST RAIN AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH
THIS MORNING.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ONE TO
TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION AND 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IS IN EFFECT FOR OSWEGO, JEFFERSON, AND LEWIS
COUNTIES.
THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE OVER LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
STATIONARY TONIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY RUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE TO THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER FROM 4PM-8PM. THERE IS A 30-45% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH FROM BUFFALO TO BATAVIA.
COLD AIR WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A MOISTURE AXIS
SOUTH OF AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE UNDER AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL, HOWEVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF BOTH LAKES MAY PICK UP
1-3 INCHES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...NOR'EASTER TO GRAZE BY OUR REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OFF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY,
WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM ALBERTA CANADA PHASING AND
DEEPENING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATER THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL DEVELOP AND ENERGIZE A LEE SIDE LOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THIS LOW TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD UP
THE ATLANTIC COAST AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE COASTLINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE GREAT LAKES...COMBINED
WITH THE NOR'EASTER MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC
SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION.
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH THE MAIN NOR'EASTER SNOW
ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
BETTER LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND WITHIN A TROWAL
SIGNATURE THAT WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME IMPACTS FOR OUR REGION AS A WING OF MOISTURE AND LIFT
PASS ACROSS OUR REGION YIELDING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 4 INCHES OF SNOW ONLY REACH 20 TO 30% ACROSS
THE INTERIOR HILLS OF SW NYS...WITH MUCH LOWER PERCENTAGES FARTHER
TO THE NORTH. DEPENDING UPON HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND PIVOTS, THE
NORTH COUNTY MAY BE FOUND WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT, SYNOPTIC SNOWS
WILL WANE, BUT WITH CAA LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DEVELOP ON A NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY AS AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN APPROACHES
WESTERN NY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE LIKELY TONIGHT AT KJHW
AND POSSIBLE AT KBUF AS A 40-45 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES
THE REGION. THE LATTER MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME LOCALIZED SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE
SOUTHWEST OF BUFFALO.
RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WESTERN NY
THIS MORNING. SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE FREEZING RAIN AT
THE ONSET NEAR THE TUG HILL AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THERE MIGHT
BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF FZRA AT KART BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING THIS MORNING. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY STAY MVFR
ACROSS WESTERN NY TODAY WITH MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION AS RAIN RATES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM'S TRAILING COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND MAY
GUST TO 35-40 KNOTS NEAR AND A LITTLE INLAND OF LAKE ERIE AND THE
NIAGARA RIVER...INCLUDING AT KBUF/KIAG.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH SNOW LIKELY EAST OF BOTH LAKES. A
CHANCE OF SNOW ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY
EAST OF BOTH LAKES.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BASIN
OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES REMAINING IN PLACE.
A SURFACE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH
THE FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, BRINGING RENEWED
HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.
PLEASE NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
CONTINUE TO BE ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE
FORECAST.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ043-
044.
DISCUSSION...HSK/THOMAS
AVIATION...HSK/JJR
MARINE...THOMAS/TMA
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