145
FXUS61 KBUF 201508
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1008 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND GUSTS INCREASED FURTHER ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
NY.
2) ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED
FLOWS AND ICE JAMS, BUT THE RISK REMAINS LOW FOR ANY FLOODING.
3) A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NY THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND TRAVEL COULD BE DIFFICULT.
4) NOR'EASTER TO GRAZE BY OUR REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN NY.
A WARM FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AT
MIDDAY TODAY, AND WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
BRIEF WINDOW OF 50-55 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FOR A SHORT WINDOW OF TIME IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHOW A SHALLOW LAYER OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL MIXING OF STRONGER
WINDS FROM ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHORT WINDOW OF 45-50 MPH WIND GUSTS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND EXTENDING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER, THE TYPICAL AREAS THAT SEE
STRONGER WINDS IN A POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST COLD ADVECTION REGIME.
WITH THIS IN MIND, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
ELEVATED FLOWS AND ICE JAMS.
A WARMER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK TODAY. A ROUND OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE THIS MORNING AND RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL AVERAGE ONE QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ACROSS WESTERN NY,
AND UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
COLDER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND RAIN WILL CHANGE
TO SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.
THE COMBINATION OF A WARMER AIRMASS AND RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS, AND THE NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
SNOWMELT AND POTENTIALLY LEAD TO THE BREAKUP OF ICE ON AREA CREEKS
AND STREAMS. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A VERY LOW CHANCE OF
AREA CREEKS REACHING FLOOD STAGE, AND A 10-30% CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
BUFFALO AREA CREEK LOCATION REACHING ACTION STAGE. BASED ON THE
AMOUNT OF HOURS ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH FRIDAY, AND OUR LOCAL
CRITERIA TO DETERMINE ICE JAM RISK, THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM
FLOODING IS LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TRAVEL COULD BE DIFFICULT.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID-WEST WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. DEEP LAYER
ASCENT WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW WHILE A SURGE
OF HIGH THETA-E AIR WITHIN IN A MOIST AIRMASS LIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS MORNING. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND LARGE SCALE FORCING
WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
THIS MORNING AND RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TUG HILL
REGION AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY AT
ONSET. WARMER AIR ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SUGGEST RAIN AS
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ONE TO
TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION AND 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IS IN EFFECT FOR OSWEGO, JEFFERSON, AND LEWIS
COUNTIES.
COLD AIR WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A MOISTURE AXIS
SOUTH OF AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE UNDER AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL, HOWEVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF BOTH LAKES MAY PICK UP
1-3 INCHES.
KEY MESSAGE 4...NOR'EASTER TO GRAZE BY OUR REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OFF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY,
WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM ALBERTA CANADA PHASING AND
DEEPENING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATER THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL DEVELOP AND ENERGIZE A LEE SIDE LOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THIS LOW TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD UP
THE ATLANTIC COAST AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE COASTLINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE GREAT LAKES...COMBINED
WITH THE NOR'EASTER MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC
SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION.
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH THE MAIN NOR'EASTER SNOW
ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
BETTER LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND WITHIN A TROWAL
SIGNATURE THAT WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME IMPACTS FOR OUR REGION AS A WING OF MOISTURE AND LIFT
PASS ACROSS OUR REGION YIELDING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 4 INCHES OF SNOW ONLY REACH 20 TO 30% ACROSS
THE INTERIOR HILLS OF SW NYS...WITH MUCH LOWER PERCENTAGES FARTHER
TO THE NORTH. DEPENDING UPON HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND PIVOTS, THE
NORTH COUNTY MAY BE FOUND WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT, SYNOPTIC SNOWS
WILL WANE, BUT WITH CAA LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DEVELOP ON A NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-
CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT
KJHW AND KBUF THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A 40-45 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET CROSSES THE REGION. THE LATTER MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME
LOCALIZED SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE SOUTHWEST OF BUFFALO.
RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS
MORNING. SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE FREEZING RAIN AT
THE ONSET NEAR THE TUG HILL AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING AT KART SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BEGIN AS RAIN AT KART THIS MORNING. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
MAINLY STAY VFR/MVFR ACROSS WESTERN NY TODAY WITH MVFR/IFR
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS RAIN RATES INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KIAG/KBUF TO KGVQ.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BY THIS EVENING AND
MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH MVFR AT KROC OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH SNOW LIKELY EAST OF BOTH LAKES. A
CHANCE OF SNOW ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY
EAST OF BOTH LAKES.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BASIN
OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES REMAINING IN PLACE.
A SURFACE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH
THE FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, BRINGING RENEWED
HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ERIE AND THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER THROUGH
TONIGHT.
PLEASE NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
CONTINUE TO BE ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE
FORECAST.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ019.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ043-
044.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK/HSK/THOMAS
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...THOMAS/TMA
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