423
FXUS61 KBUF 201838
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
138 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND GUSTS INCREASED FURTHER ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NY.
SLIGHTLY DECREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ADDED CHANCES FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
NY.
2) RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
3) A NOR'EASTER GRAZING OUR REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW.
4) ANOTHER MARGINAL WARMUP EXPECTED MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN NY.
A MODERATELY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REACH LAKE HURON BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN STALL AND WEAKEN IN PLACE TONIGHT. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A BRIEF WINDOW OF 50-55 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE TOP
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR A SHORT WINDOW OF TIME IN THE COLD
ADVECTION REGIME BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
NY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A SHALLOW LAYER OF STEEPER LAPSE
RATES DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, SUFFICIENT
FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHORT WINDOW OF 45-50 MPH WIND GUSTS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND EXTENDING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER, THE TYPICAL AREAS THAT SEE
STRONGER WINDS IN A POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST COLD ADVECTION REGIME.
WITH THIS IN MIND, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED.
THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL
BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS A WARM FRONTAL ZONE STALLS ITS
NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESS. FRONTOGENESIS, ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE, AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS MAINLY RAIN AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE THOUSAND ISLANDS WHERE FREEZING RAIN IS
FALLING. THE RAIN AND ANY WINTRY MIX WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FIRST ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND LAST CLOSE TO
LAKE ONTARIO.
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA, PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND WILL BE MORE SPOTTY/INTERMITTENT IN
NATURE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN NY TO
SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED, WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL
THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, COLD AIR SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ADVECT BACK INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES, ALLOWING RAIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AREAWIDE.
THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR FIRST ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, THEN PROGRESS TO LOWER
ELEVATIONS BY LATE EVENING. THE INITIAL LOW OVER LAKE HURON WILL
QUICKLY WEAKEN INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH TONIGHT, WITH ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A PASSING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SUPPORTING PERIODS OF SNOW OVERNIGHT.
THE SNOW WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE OVERLYING SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. EXPECT
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS, CHAUTAUQUA
RIDGE, AND TUG HILL PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED TO A COATING TO 2".
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, THE REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW FOUND ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO NEAR THE AXIS OF THE DECAYING TROUGH.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED, WITH ANOTHER COATING TO
AN INCH OR TWO SATURDAY, AND ANOTHER COATING SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A NOR'EASTER GRAZING OUR REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW.
A COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE THIS
WEEKEND. SEVERAL PHASING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS, ONE PEELING OFF THE
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS, ONE TRACKING ALONG THE GULF COAST, ANOTHER
DIVING OUT OF ALBERTA, AND A STALLED WEAKENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WILL ALL PHASE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE RESULT
WILL BE A SHARPENING, NEGATIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
TRANSLATE EASTWARD TO FORM A POTENT NOR'EASTER NEAR THE CAROLINAS.
THE LARGE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BROAD-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING
NORTHWESTWARD INTERACTING WITH MOISTURE FROM THE STALLED LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL PERIODS OF LIGHT BUT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING, THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY WHILE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE NOR'EASTERS TROWAL. NBM PROBABILITIES OF
48HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS >4" THROUGH MONDAY PEAK AT ABOUT 40-60% ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND BATAVIA. MANY LONG
RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (MOST NOTABLY FROM THE GEFS) ALSO SUGGEST
PORTIONS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO SNOW
AT ALL IN THIS TIMEFRAME WITH A DEEPER INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. REGARDLESS, MARGINAL SFC TEMPERATURES AND
THE STEEP LATE-FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE SHOULD MITIGATE IMPACTS DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH A NONZERO CHANCE THAT EVEN
SOME RAIN MANAGES TO MIX IN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AT TIMES SUNDAY.
THIS SAID, WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE REFREEZE POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE NOR'EASTER PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND PASSES JUST SOUTH OF
NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A COLDER POLAR CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS WILL GET BRIEFLY PULLED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY WHILE 850MB TEMPS TO DROP ENOUGH FOR A LAKE RESPONSE AND
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. LOW CONFIDENCE IN SNOW POTENTIAL
AT THIS RANGE WITH LAKE ERIE BEING ALMOST ENTIRELY ICE COVERED AND
DRIER AIR POTENTIALLY ADVECTING OVER LAKE ONTARIO.
KEY MESSAGE 4...ANOTHER MARGINAL WARMUP EXPECTED MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK
WITH CHANCES FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN ALBERTA-
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM QUICKLY TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BETWEEN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF WIDESPREAD SNOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN ITS WAKE, A MORE POTENT SYSTEM TAKING A
MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK INTERACTS WITH MORE GULF MOISTURE AND BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE REGION. TIMING OF THIS LATTER SYSTEM
REMAINS UNCERTAIN THOUGH THE GENERAL PATTERN IS SUPPORTIVE OF
ANOTHER WEAK WARMUP WITH A TRANSITION TO/MIX WITH RAIN, WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE FEBRUARY.
SIMILAR TO THIS PAST WEEK, WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FORECAST
TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO WATER AND ICE LEVELS ON AREA CREEKS
AND STREAMS, THOUGH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP OR SLUG OF PLAIN RAIN
WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED TO WARRANT MORE SERIOUS HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
WINDS INCREASING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE, WHERE GUSTS
MAY REACH OR EXCEED 40 KNOTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, INCLUDING KBUF AND KROC. GUSTY WINDS WILL
ALSO REACH KROC, BUT WILL LIKELY PEAK UNDER 40 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD, MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH RAIN GRADUALLY CHANGING TO WET SNOW, FIRST ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND LAST CLOSE TO LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON CLOSE TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER BEFORE
CHANGING TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED
TO SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED, WEAK THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN
NY THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, A SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE HURON THIS EVENING WILL WEAKEN AND
ELONGATE INTO A TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THIS EVENING, FIRST ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND LAST ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT, FORCING AND MOISTURE
FROM THE TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR VSBY AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS.
THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE OF SNOW FOUND ACROSS WESTERN NY AND THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH MORE LOCALIZED IFR
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN SNOW.
MONDAY...LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TUESDAY...LOCAL MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
EASTERLY WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL SWING AROUND TO
THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE LAKE. BOTH THE EASTERLIES AND SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL
EXCEED 20 KNOTS AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SATURDAY MORNING AND SWING AROUND
TO THE NORTHEAST AGAIN ON LAKE ONTARIO.
PLEASE NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
CONTINUE TO BE ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE
FORECAST.
HYDROLOGY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND ONGOING SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF MINOR RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RUNOFF AND SOME
INCREASE IN STREAM/RIVER FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT ELEVATED FLOWS COULD BREAK UP RIVER
ICE IN SOME AREAS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMER OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS.
IN GENERAL, THE FLOOD RISK REMAINS LOW BUT NON-ZERO THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED FLOWS AND
LOW CHANCE OF ICE BREAK-UP. THEREAFTER, COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL
END THE RUNOFF SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
MINIMAL CONCERN OF ANY ADDITIONAL ICE BREAK-UP.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ001-002-
010>012-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ019.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ020-040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ043-
044.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK/PP
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK
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