399
FXUS61 KBUF 210006
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
706 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SPED UP THE INCREASE IN POPS/ASSOCIATED CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING.
SLIGHTLY DECREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ADDED CHANCES FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NY.
2) RAIN WILL FINISH CHANGING BACK TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
3) A NOR'EASTER GRAZING OUR REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW.
4) ANOTHER MARGINAL WARMUP EXPECTED MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
NY.
ONGOING COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO HELP MIX DOWN LINGERING
HIGHER-MOMENTUM AIR FROM ALOFT (45-50 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER) ACROSS FAR WNY THIS EVENING. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF 45-50 MPH WIND GUSTS
WITHIN THE WIND ADVISORY AREA ALONG AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE...
BEFORE WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE START TO DROP OFF LATER THIS
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RAIN WILL FINISH CHANGING BACK TO SNOW THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED.
TONIGHT, COLD AIR SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ADVECT BACK ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES, ALLOWING LINGERING RAIN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY TO CHANGE BACK OVER TO
SNOW THIS EVENING...WITH THIS CHANGEOVER ALREADY HAVING TAKEN PLACE
ELSEWHERE. THE INITIAL LOW OVER LAKE HURON WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN INTO
AN ELONGATED TROUGH TONIGHT, WITH ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE AND FORCING
FOR ASCENT FROM A PASSING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SUPPORTING PERIODS OF
SNOW OVERNIGHT.
THE SNOW WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE OVERLYING SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. EXPECT
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS, CHAUTAUQUA
RIDGE, AND TUG HILL PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED TO A COATING TO 2".
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, THE REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW FOUND ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO NEAR THE AXIS OF THE DECAYING TROUGH.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED, WITH ANOTHER COATING TO
AN INCH OR TWO SATURDAY, AND ANOTHER COATING SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A NOR'EASTER GRAZING OUR REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW.
A COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE THIS
WEEKEND. SEVERAL PHASING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS, ONE PEELING OFF THE
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS, ONE TRACKING ALONG THE GULF COAST, ANOTHER
DIVING OUT OF ALBERTA, AND A STALLED WEAKENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WILL ALL PHASE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE RESULT
WILL BE A SHARPENING, NEGATIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
TRANSLATE EASTWARD TO FORM A POTENT NOR'EASTER NEAR THE CAROLINAS.
THE LARGE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BROAD-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING
NORTHWESTWARD INTERACTING WITH MOISTURE FROM THE STALLED LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL PERIODS OF LIGHT BUT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING, THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY WHILE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE NOR'EASTERS TROWAL. NBM PROBABILITIES OF
48HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS >4" THROUGH MONDAY PEAK AT ABOUT 40-60% ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND BATAVIA. MANY LONG
RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (MOST NOTABLY FROM THE GEFS) ALSO SUGGEST
PORTIONS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO SNOW
AT ALL IN THIS TIMEFRAME WITH A DEEPER INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. REGARDLESS, MARGINAL SFC TEMPERATURES AND
THE STEEP LATE-FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE SHOULD MITIGATE IMPACTS DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH A NONZERO CHANCE THAT EVEN
SOME RAIN MANAGES TO MIX IN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AT TIMES SUNDAY.
THIS SAID, WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE REFREEZE POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE NOR'EASTER PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND PASSES JUST SOUTH OF
NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A COLDER POLAR CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS WILL GET BRIEFLY PULLED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY WHILE 850MB TEMPS TO DROP ENOUGH FOR A LAKE RESPONSE AND
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. LOW CONFIDENCE IN SNOW POTENTIAL
AT THIS RANGE WITH LAKE ERIE BEING ALMOST ENTIRELY ICE COVERED AND
DRIER AIR POTENTIALLY ADVECTING OVER LAKE ONTARIO.
KEY MESSAGE 4...ANOTHER MARGINAL WARMUP EXPECTED MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK
WITH CHANCES FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN ALBERTA-
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM QUICKLY TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BETWEEN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF WIDESPREAD SNOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN ITS WAKE, A MORE POTENT SYSTEM TAKING A
MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK INTERACTS WITH MORE GULF MOISTURE AND BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE REGION. TIMING OF THIS LATTER SYSTEM
REMAINS UNCERTAIN THOUGH THE GENERAL PATTERN IS SUPPORTIVE OF
ANOTHER WEAK WARMUP WITH A TRANSITION TO/MIX WITH RAIN, WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE FEBRUARY.
SIMILAR TO THIS PAST WEEK, WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FORECAST
TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO WATER AND ICE LEVELS ON AREA CREEKS
AND STREAMS, THOUGH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP OR SLUG OF PLAIN RAIN
WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED TO WARRANT MORE SERIOUS HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON THIS EVENING WILL WEAKEN AND
ELONGATE INTO A WEST TO EAST-ORIENTED TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO TONIGHT. COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN BEHIND THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO FORCE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...WITH ANY
LINGERING RAIN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MID-LATE EVENING. FORCING AND
MOISTURE FROM THE TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT
EAST OF THE LAKES TO PRODUCE AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WITH
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TONIGHT.
ON SATURDAY EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
OVERALL COVERAGE OF SNOW WILL BE ACROSS FAR WNY AND NEAR THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
AND MORE LOCALIZED IFR CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN SNOW.
MONDAY...LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TUESDAY...LOCAL MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...BRISK SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL EXCEED 20
KNOTS AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SATURDAY MORNING WHILE ALSO SWINGING
AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AGAIN ON LAKE ONTARIO.
PLEASE NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
CONTINUE TO BE ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE
FORECAST.
HYDROLOGY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND ONGOING SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF MINOR RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RUNOFF AND SOME
INCREASE IN STREAM/RIVER FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT ELEVATED FLOWS COULD BREAK UP RIVER
ICE IN SOME AREAS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMER OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS.
IN GENERAL, THE FLOOD RISK REMAINS LOW BUT NON-ZERO THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED FLOWS AND
LOW CHANCE OF ICE BREAK-UP. THEREAFTER, COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL
END THE RUNOFF SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
MINIMAL CONCERN OF ANY ADDITIONAL ICE BREAK-UP.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ001-002-
010>012-019-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ020-040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ043-
044.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK/JJR/PP
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/JJR
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/JJR
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK
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