838
FXUS61 KBUF 210640
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
140 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO, AND
EAST OF LAKE ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS TO PARTS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY THROUGH TONIGHT.
2) A NOR'EASTER GRAZING OUR REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW.
3) LAKE ENHANCED AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY
4) ANOTHER MARGINAL WARMUP EXPECTED WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS TO PARTS
OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY THROUGH TONIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND OUT TO SEA
TODAY. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM LAKE HURON
TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING, AND WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY WHILE WEAKENING TODAY. A MOIST, WESTERLY FLOW AND MODEST
ASCENT WILL SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE. AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES
IS EXPECTED ON THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING.
THE REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN TWO WEAK SURFACE LOWS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, WITH A
COATING POSSIBLE IN ANY PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR LAKE ONTARIO.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A NOR'EASTER GRAZING OUR REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW.
A COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE THIS
WEEKEND. SEVERAL PHASING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS, ONE PEELING OFF THE
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS, ONE TRACKING ALONG THE GULF COAST, ANOTHER
DIVING OUT OF ALBERTA, AND A STALLED WEAKENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WILL ALL PHASE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE RESULT
WILL BE A SHARPENING, NEGATIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
TRANSLATE EASTWARD TO FORM A POTENT NOR'EASTER, DEEPENING TO THE LEE
OF THE APPALACHIANS NEAR THE CAROLINAS.
THE LARGE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BROAD-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING
NORTHWESTWARD INTERACTING WITH MOISTURE FROM THE STALLED LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL PERIODS OF LIGHT BUT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING, THEN TAPER
OFF/TRANSITION TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO
THE NOR'EASTERS TROWAL.
NBM PROBABILITIES OF 24HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS >4" THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING PEAK AT ABOUT 20-40% ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SOUTH
OF BUFFALO AND BATAVIA. MANY LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (MOST
NOTABLY FROM THE GEFS) ALSO SUGGEST PORTIONS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO SNOW AT ALL IN THIS TIMEFRAME
WITH A DEEPER INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
REGARDLESS, MARGINAL SFC TEMPERATURES AND THE STEEP LATE-FEBRUARY
SUN ANGLE SHOULD MITIGATE IMPACTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY.
THIS SAID, WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE REFREEZE POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...LAKE ENHANCED AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING
NOR' EASTER AND AN UPSTREAM 1050 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPPING DOWN INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
INITIALLY 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR PURE LAKE
EFFECT, STARTING SUNDAY EVENING AROUND -7 TO -8C. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL TRANSITION THE LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE
SNOW OVER TO PURE LAKE EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BECOME LIGHT
AND FLUFFY ON A NNW FLOW.
AREAS THAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED FOR GREATER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
(POSSIBLY OVER 4") WILL BE THE UPSLOPE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE OFF ERIE,
AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE WHERE FRICTIONAL AND
LAND TOPOGRAPHY CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE SNOWFALL ALONG THE
SHORELINE. A RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BACKING TO SOUTHERLY AND WARMING IN
THE MID LEVELS ENDING LAKE INSTABILITY FOR LAKE SNOWS.
KEY MESSAGE 4...ANOTHER MARGINAL WARMUP EXPECTED WEDNESDAY -
THURSDAY WITH CHANCES FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN ALBERTA-
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM QUICKLY TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BETWEEN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF WIDESPREAD SNOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN ITS WAKE, A MORE POTENT SYSTEM TAKING A
MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK INTERACTS WITH MORE GULF MOISTURE AND BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. TIMING OF THIS
LATTER SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN THOUGH IT MAY HAVE A GREATER AMOUNT
OF QPF, AND THE GENERAL PATTERN IS SUPPORTIVE OF ANOTHER WEAK WARMUP
WITH A TRANSITION TO/MIX WITH RAIN, WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A
BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE FEBRUARY.
SIMILAR TO THIS PAST WEEK, WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FORECAST
TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO WATER AND ICE LEVELS ON AREA CREEKS
AND STREAMS, THOUGH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP OR SLUG OF PLAIN RAIN
WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED TO WARRANT MORE SERIOUS HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AN AREA OF ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION TODAY. A MOIST, WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO
THIS MORNING. MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH IFR MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO OUR NORTH TODAY, AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NY, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE NEAR THE LAKES.
MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN SNOW.
MONDAY...LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TUESDAY...LOCAL MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
BRISK SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKES, PRODUCING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TODAY WHILE ALSO SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AGAIN ON LAKE
ONTARIO.
PLEASE NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
CONTINUE TO BE ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE
FORECAST.
HYDROLOGY
THE WARM-UP AND SUBSEQUENT SNOWMELT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RUNOFF AND SOME INCREASE IN STREAM/RIVER FLOW
TODAY. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT ELEVATED FLOWS COULD
BREAK UP RIVER ICE IN SOME AREAS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMER OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS.
IN GENERAL, THE FLOOD RISK REMAINS LOW BUT NON-ZERO TODAY ACROSS
WESTERN NY WITH THE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED FLOWS AND LOW CHANCE OF ICE
BREAK-UP. THEREAFTER, COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL END THE RUNOFF
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MINIMAL CONCERN OF ANY
ADDITIONAL ICE BREAK-UP.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ020-
040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LOZ043-044.
DISCUSSION...HSK/PP/THOMAS
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/HSK/JJR
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/HSK
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