416
FXUS61 KBUF 220049
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
749 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW JUST SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE A GLAZE OF ICE AND VERY MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
2) THE PERIPHERAL EFFECTS OF A NOR'EASTER COMBINED WITH LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BRING PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
3) THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW AND A MARGINAL WARMUP.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW JUST SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE A GLAZE OF ICE AND VERY MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
A DECAYING TROUGH STRETCHING FROM LAKE HURON TO LAKE ONTARIO WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW
THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF I90 TO THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A GLAZE TO A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
4:00 AM. THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL KEEP ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH.
LATE TONIGHT, DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES AS A
MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
DRIZZLE TO CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE LATE
TONIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR LATE TONIGHT, WITH
SPOTTY LESS THAN ONE INCH AMOUNTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE PERIPHERAL EFFECTS OF A NOR'EASTER COMBINED WITH
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BRING PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
A WEAK MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL
DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND
RAPIDLY DEEPEN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, PASSING OVER OR JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THIS TRACK IS MUCH TOO FAR EAST
FOR THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE ANY DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR REGION, BUT AN
INVERTED TROUGH IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS WILL EXTEND FROM THE DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW BACK INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DEEP MOISTURE, LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE, AND PERSISTENT WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH
THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL EVENTUALLY GROW COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATIONS ON SUNDAY WILL BE MINOR, WITH RELATIVELY MILD SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SNOWFALL RATES ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF
MELTING, ESPECIALLY ON PAVEMENT. EXPECT AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST
AREAS, WITH 1-3" ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
BRISTOL HILLS. SUNDAY NIGHT, MOST OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN SEE AN INCH
OR LESS, WITH ANOTHER 1-2" ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND BRISTOL HILLS.
THE NOR'EASTER WILL PASS BY THE GULF OF MAINE AS STRONG SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS ONTARIO PROVINCE MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE
A POLAR CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TO BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH 850MB TEMPS DIPPING TO BETWEEN -18C AND -20C BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE RESULTING LAKE RESPONSE COMBINED WITH NW FLOW UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT AND FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SHORELINES WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT, FLUFFY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SOUTH OF
BOTH LAKES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY IN THIS TIMEFRAME AS EQLS OVER LAKE ONTARIO
HOVER BETWEEN 4-6KFT, BRIEFLY JUMPING TO AROUND 7KFT LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WHILE LAKE ERIE REMAINS ALMOST ENTIRELY ICE COVERED.
GREATEST CHANCES FOR 4"+ OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL LIE ACROSS THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND HILLTOPS SOUTH OF BUFFALO/BATAVIA, THOUGH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN THIS BALLPARK MAY ALSO FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE. GIVEN THE SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN QPF AMONG
THE MID-RANGE GUIDANCE AND EXPECTED LOW-END SNOWFALL RATES, HAVE
OPTED TO FOREGO WINTER WEATHER RELATED HEADLINES WITH THIS UPDATE.
WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED SOURCES OF MESOSCALE FORCING ARE LARGELY
ABSENT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE TUG HILL,
PLENTY OF DRY TIME IS EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR AHEAD OF A BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN THE LAKE RESPONSE AND NUISANCE SNOWFALL FROM
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY, THOUGH SOME STUBBORN LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW AND A MARGINAL WARMUP.
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME AS THERE REMAINS
A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES ON AN
ALBERTA-CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM QUICKLY TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS
CLIPPER SUPPORT A SHOT OF WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
POSSIBLY MIXING WITH OR TAPERING OFF AS RAIN ON THE BACKSIDE. MODELS
SUGGEST THIS WILL BE ANOTHER MINOR EVENT WITH NBM PROBABILITIES OF
4" OR MORE OF SNOW ONLY 20-40% AT MOST, THOUGH THE WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT AND OVERNIGHT TIMING COULD MEAN SOME MESSY WET SNOW IN TIME OF
THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS CLIPPER, A DEEPER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE A
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS THE CONUS AND INTERSECT WITH A DEEPER
PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WARMER AND
WETTER OVERALL SYSTEM SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
THOUGH TRACK AND TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE.
THIS LATER-WEEK SYSTEM WILL LARGELY DICTATE HOW MUCH OF A WARMUP AND
OVERALL QPF WE SEE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, THOUGH CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY.
SIMILAR TO THIS PAST WEEK, WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS FOR
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO WATER AND ICE LEVELS ON AREA CREEKS AND
STREAMS, THOUGH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP OR SLUG OF PLAIN RAIN WILL
BE LIKELY NEEDED TO WARRANT MORE SERIOUS HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A DECAYING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM LAKE HURON TO LAKE
ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING NORTH OF I90 TO THE LAKE ONTARIO
LAKESHORE WITH MVFR AND BRIEF IFR VSBY, INCLUDING KIAG, KROC TO
KFZY. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA, WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS IN LOW
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE.
MOST OF THE SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL TAPER OFF AND END
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT, WITH AREAS CLOSER TO
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO LINGERING THE LONGEST.
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE, WITH LOWER END MVFR/IFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY, A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES,
WITH A LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM PA INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES FROM A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW. BROAD/WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT COMBINED WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH IFR VSBY AND LOWER END MVFR/IFR
CIGS WIDESPREAD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND LOW
CIGS WITH LOWER END MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY...LOCAL MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY.
MARINE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. A STRONG LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE ONTARIO
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BECOME NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.
PLEASE NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
CONTINUE TO BE ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE
FORECAST.
HYDROLOGY
THE WARM-UP AND SUBSEQUENT SNOWMELT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS
SUPPORTED HIGHER FLOWS IN CREEKS AND RIVERS, WITH MOST HAVING
CRESTED YESTERDAY OR LAST NIGHT AND NOW RECEDING. THERE WAS SOME
ICE BREAK-UP IN SOME LOCATIONS AND EVEN A FEW ICE JAMS IN PLACE,
BUT LOWERING FLOWS AND NO FUTURE MELTING OR RAINFALL WILL KEEP
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY IMPACTFUL FLOODING VERY LOW THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ001>006.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK/PP/SW
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SW
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK
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