923
FXUS61 KBUF 221139
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
639 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOR'EASTER TO BRUSH BY OUR REGION TODAY, WITH AN AXIS OF HEAVIER
SNOW ACROSS INLAND HILLS OF WNY.
2) LAKE ENHANCED SNOW BECOMING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.
3) THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND SNOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NOR'EASTER TO BRUSH BY OUR REGION TODAY, WITH AN
AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOW ACROSS INLAND HILLS OF WNY.
A COMPLEX AND IMPACTFUL LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EMERGING THIS MORNING AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMBINE TO FORM A LONGWAVE, NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. FROM THIS, A SURFACE LOW OFF THE
CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD...WITH A
SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO WNY.
LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUIDANCE PACKAGES
ARE CLUSTERED INTO TWO SEPARATE GROUPS, WITH VARIOUS MODEL RUNS
EXTENDING THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONTOGENTIC FORCING ALOFT
ACROSS CATTARAUGUS/WYOMING COUNTIES, WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE BRINGS THE
INVERTED TROUGH NORTHWARD ACROSS ALLEGANY AND INTO
LIVINGSTON/ONTARIO COUNTIES.
WHERE THIS TROUGH EVENTUALLY LIES, AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WE
COULD SEE 4 TO 5 INCHES OF WET SNOW ACCUMULATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
GRASSY SURFACES. HILLTOP ROADS, WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING ARE LIKELY TO HAVE MUCH LESS SNOW ACCUMULATION. ACROSS
LOWER TERRAIN AND AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW BECOMING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING NOR'
EASTER AND AN UPSTREAM 1050 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
INITIALLY 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR PURE LAKE
EFFECT, STARTING SUNDAY EVENING AROUND -7 TO -8C. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL TRANSITION THE LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE
SNOW OVER TO PURE LAKE EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BECOME LIGHT
AND FLUFFY ON A NNW FLOW.
PRIMARILY LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH A POSSIBLE UPSTREAM
CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY MAY YIELD OVER HALF A FOOT OF SNOW ON THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. FOR WHICH A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. SNOWFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT FOR THE
BOSTON HILLS.
ADDITIONALLY, AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE,
ESPECIALLY MONROE COUNTY WESTWARD WHERE FRICTIONAL AND LAND
TOPOGRAPHY CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE SNOWFALL ALONG THE SHORELINE
WILL HAVE DAY TO DAY SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES. AS WINDS BACK AND
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL EXTEND TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
A RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BACKING TO SOUTHERLY AND WARMING IN THE MID
LEVELS ENDING LAKE INSTABILITY FOR LAKE SNOWS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
MULTIPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AND A
PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SNOW MAY RESULT IN MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. LOW
PROBABILITIES (20-40%) OF 4" OR MORE OF SNOW IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD ARE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, HOWEVER THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. THIS
COULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION.
THIS LATER-WEEK SYSTEM WILL LARGELY DICTATE HOW MUCH OF A WARMUP AND
OVERALL RAIN OR SNOW WE SEE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
ADVERTISED WARM-UP IS BECOMING SHORTER AND SHORTER WITH ONE DAY IN
THE LONG TERM (SATURDAY) IN THE 40S. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FOR THE 12Z TAFS LIGHT SNOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE TAF REGION
WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS IFR/MVFR TO BRIEFLY VFR THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES THIS EARLY AFTERNOON,
WET SNOW IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AREA AS WELL AS
INTENSITY...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES...BUT PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
AS THE NOR'EASTER PULLS EASTWARD TONIGHT A NORTHERLY FLOW, THAT WILL
SLOWLY BECOME COLDER, WILL GENERATE LAKE ENHANCED, UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS WNY. THE HILLS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE, INCLUDING THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER (KJHW) HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SNOW,
WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR KJHW.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND LOW CIGS
WITH LOWER END MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY...LOCAL MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY.
MARINE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A STRONG LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE ONTARIO LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BECOME NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.
PLEASE NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
CONTINUE TO BE ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE
FORECAST.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR NYZ019.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HSK/THOMAS
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
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