492
FXUS61 KBUF 230116
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
816 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LOCALIZED TO THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES WHERE LOCALLY MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BRISTOL
HILLS AND SOUTHERN TIER RIDGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND MORE LOCALIZED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SOUTH
OF THE LAKES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH MINOR
IMPACTS IN MOST AREAS. LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.
2) ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL.
3) A THIRD SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND MORE LOCALIZED LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SOUTH OF THE LAKES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH MINOR IMPACTS IN MOST AREAS. LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL
TOTALS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.
A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST, PASSING OVER OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
TONIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE GULF OF MAINE LATER MONDAY EVENING
WHILE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. WHILE THIS TRACK IS TOO FAR EAST TO
DIRECTLY IMPACT OUR REGION, AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE LOW/MID
LEVELS WILL PERSIST NORTHWEST OF THE COASTAL LOW, EXTENDING BACK
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH COMBINED WITH
PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN NY AND THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES. MORE LOCALIZED LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BECOME SUPERIMPOSED ON THE LARGER SCALE
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL IN SOME AREAS.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION. TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE AXIS OF BETTER
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD WITH TIME, FOCUSING MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN NY, THE GENESEE VALLEY, AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES.
THE AIRMASS WILL GROW COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO, AND INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ALSO FORCE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT TO
INCREASE AT THE SAME TIME.
FOR MOST OF THE AREA, IMPACTS WILL BE MINOR WITH A COATING TO AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGHER LATE FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE WILL REDUCE ROAD IMPACTS DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH PLENTY OF MELTING ON PAVEMENT. SNOWFALL TOTALS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE LOWER ELEVATION AREAS
OF WESTERN NY, THE GENESEE VALLEY, AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES WILL
GENERALLY BE 3-5" SPREAD OUT OVER 48 HOURS. EXCEPTIONS NOTED BELOW.
THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA
RIDGE IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY, WHERE 8-12" IS LIKELY ALONG A NARROW
AXIS JUST INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE. MUCH OF THIS WILL FALL MONDAY WHEN
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT PEAKS, WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF AROUND 1" PER
HOUR. THE LAKESHORE OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY INCLUDING THE NYS THRUWAY,
AND ALSO FARTHER INLAND NEAR JAMESTOWN WILL SEE MUCH LESS. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING IN
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BOSTON HILLS, RIDGES OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND WYOMING COUNTY, AND THE BRISTOL HILLS WILL ALSO SEE LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS OF 4-8" DUE TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AND COLDER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WITH ALTITUDE. EXPECT MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE
SURROUNDING VALLEYS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS.
THE WIDESPREAD LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE SNOW IN WESTERN NY WILL
PERSIST INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A MORE LOCALIZED AREA OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WITH MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL.
A BRIEF WINDOW OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING WILL NOT LAST LONG, WITH ANOTHER STRONG MID LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. A
PERIOD OF DPVA AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY, SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE
REGION AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF ARRIVAL OF A THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES, SOME RAIN MAY BRIEFLY MIX IN ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRODUCING A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SPOTTY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A THIRD SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION.
YET ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NATION, REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY THEN THE MID ATLANTIC OR
NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE STRONG MID LEVEL
FORCING ATOP THE STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST MAY ALLOW ANOTHER MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE
LOW TO DEVELOP, ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN NOTABLE RUN TO RUN SPREAD IN
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM.
GIVEN THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME RANGE, CHANCE TO LOW
LIKELY POPS CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES
REMAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM, FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW TO WINTRY MIX TO A
FLATTER, MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION THAT KEEPS ANY IMPACTS SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. IT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL MORE DAYS BEFORE MODEL GUIDANCE
BEGINS TO CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY. TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THE AXIS OF STEADIEST SNOW WILL TEND TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND
CONCENTRATE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NY, THE GENESEE VALLEY, AND
WESTERN FINGER LAKES WITH AREAS OF IFR CONTINUING. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY AS COLD
AIR DEEPENS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA
RIDGE WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL PRODUCE MODERATE SNOWFALL
RATES, ESPECIALLY JUST WEST OF KJHW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
INCLUDING KART, AS THE STEADIER SNOW MOVES WEST OF THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH IFR VSBY AND MVFR/IFR CIGS.
TUESDAY...LOCAL MVFR/IFR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW, POSSIBLY ENDING WITH A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY, DETERIORATING TO IFR WITH SNOW OR A
WINTRY MIX LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY...MVFR/LOCAL IFR EARLY IN LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS,
IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A STRONG LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE ONTARIO
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BECOME NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.
PLEASE NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
CONTINUE TO BE ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE
FORECAST.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ012-020-
085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ013-014-
021.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ019.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LOZ042>044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR LOZ045.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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