436
FXUS61 KBUF 231132
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
632 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO THE SNOW FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND MORE LOCALIZED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SOUTH
OF THE LAKES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH MINOR
IMPACTS IN MOST AREAS. LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.
2) ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL.
3) A THIRD SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND MORE LOCALIZED LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SOUTH OF THE LAKES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH MINOR IMPACTS IN MOST AREAS. LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL
TOTALS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.
THIS EARLY MORNING A DEEP NOR'EASTER IS FOUND OFF THE JERSEY SHORE,
WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITHIN A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW YIELDING
LIGHT SNOW, AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION. DEEPER
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD TODAY, BEFORE
ADVANCING BACK EASTWARD TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE WITHIN A LOW LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WIDESPREAD AND LIGHT SNOW WEST OF
ROUTE 14 TODAY...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO PERIODS OF DRY
WEATHER EAST OF ROUTE 14.
ACROSS LOWER TERRAIN SNOW AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN 1-2" WITH LOCALIZED
AREAS UP TO 4 INCHES WHERE BANDS OF SNOW LINGER THE LONGEST. FARTHER
INLAND UPSLOPE EFFECTS WILL AID IN HILL TOPS OF THE BOSTON HILLS,
INLAND SOUTHERN TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES HILLS TOPPING 4 INCHES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THESE INLAND COUNTIES
WILL LIKELY HAVE MUCH LESS SNOW THAN THE HILL TOPS.
FOR THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MAXIMIZE LIFT WITH HEAVY LAKE ENHANCE SNOW FOUND
ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. AS COLD AIR DEEPENS
BEHIND A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
ABUNDANT, UPSTREAM LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF GEORGIAN BAY WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE...ADDING TOGETHER FOR A STORM TOTAL OF A FOOT ON RIDGE. A
WINTER STORM WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
THE WIDESPREAD LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE SNOW IN WESTERN NY WILL
PERSIST INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA LOWERING INTO THE MID- NEGATIVE TEENS
CELSIUS. A MORE LOCALIZED AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BEFORE MOVING INTO QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY, A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT, AND DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WARM-AIR
ADVECTION WITHIN A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND
SNOW WILL BE LESS INTENSE. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITSELF INTO
WESTERN NY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND
SHOWERY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL WILL CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED WEST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND ON THE TUG HILL, WITH AN INCH OR LESS IS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND ASCENT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL BECOME LESS INTENSE, HOWEVER A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE TUG
HILL REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE LOW TO MID 30S, POSSIBLY
THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY. LIGHT SNOW
MAY MIX WITH RAIN IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, WITH LESS THAN
AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN NY. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
EAST OF THE LAKES.
STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY AND 3
TO 6 INCHES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN SEEING THE
HIGH SIDE OF THOSE RANGES. CONFIDENCE OF GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF
SNOW IS MEDIUM (50-70%) ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION AND AN ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A THIRD SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION.
YET ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NATION, REACHING THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY THEN THE MID ATLANTIC OR NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY. THE STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING ATOP THE STRONG THERMAL
GRADIENT STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED TO ALLOW ANOTHER MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP,
ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN NOTABLE RUN TO RUN SPREAD IN MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
GIVEN THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME RANGE, CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES REMAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM, FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW TO WINTRY MIX TO A FLATTER, MORE
SOUTHERN SOLUTION THAT KEEPS ANY IMPACTS SOUTH OF OUR REGION. IT
WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL MORE DAYS BEFORE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FOR THE 12Z TAFS WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
FOUND ACROSS WNY, THIS AS THE AXIS OF LOWER MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENT SNOW CENTERS UPON WNY TODAY.
LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER FOR THE 4 WESTERN TAF SITES
TODAY ON A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH FLUCTUATING
VISIBILITIES BETWEEN IFR AND VFR THROUGH THE DAY, THOUGH
CEILING HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FROM IFR TO MVFR.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WHERE UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT WILL PRODUCE MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES, ESPECIALLY JUST
WEST OF KJHW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION TODAY INCLUDING KART, AS THE STEADIER SNOW MOVES WEST
OF THE REGION.
AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS WNY
TONIGHT, CONTINUING THE LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITIES, ESPECIALLY
FOR KROC, THOUGH AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO WANE, THE PREDOMINANCE
OF IFR WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WANE FOR ALL THE 4 WESTERN TAF
SITES.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...LOCAL MVFR/IFR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW, POSSIBLY ENDING WITH A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY, DETERIORATING TO IFR WITH SNOW OR A
WINTRY MIX LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY...MVFR/LOCAL IFR EARLY IN LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS,
IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
A STRONG LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH TODAY
WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THESE WINDS WILL BECOME GREATER THAN 20 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO, WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUING FOR THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
PLEASE NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
CONTINUE TO BE ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE
FORECAST.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ012-020-
085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ013-
014-021.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ019.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ045.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK/HSK/THOMAS
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
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