791
FXUS61 KBUF 231835
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
135 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALLEGANY,
LIVINGSTON, AND ONTARIO COUNTIES WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND MORE LOCALIZED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SOUTH
OF THE LAKES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH MINOR
IMPACTS IN MOST AREAS. LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.
2) ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL.
3) A THIRD SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, BUT MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IF THE
FORECAST TRACT TRENDS BACK NORTHWARD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND MORE LOCALIZED LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SOUTH OF THE LAKES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH MINOR IMPACTS IN MOST AREAS. LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL
TOTALS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.
AN INTENSE NOR'EASTER OVER THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TUESDAY. A REMNANT INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL BREAK DOWN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IT WILL LEAVE AN
AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE BEHIND. DPVA AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT FROM WESTERN NY INTO THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES. CYCLONIC
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLDER AIR WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
ALSO SUPERIMPOSED ON THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING SIGNAL.
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS WESTERN NY. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW WILL MOVE BACK EAST
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES TOWARDS OSWEGO COUNTY OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW BACKS TO THE WNW AND PUSHES DEEPER MOISTURE AND LAKE
ENHANCEMENT EASTWARD. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT,
GENERALLY 1-2" FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOME LOCALIZED 3" AMOUNTS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT, AND ALSO ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND BRISTOL HILLS. THE CHAUTAUQUA
RIDGE WILL SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH ANOTHER 3-6" LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT IN A NARROW STRIP JUST INLAND FROM LAKE
ERIE.
FOR MOST OF THE AREA, THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AND END FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, MAINLY
FROM THE EASTERN SUBURBS OF ROCHESTER EASTWARD TOWARDS OSWEGO
COUNTY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS LOWER AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA, WITH A CLIPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE OTTAWA VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. DPVA/HEIGHT FALLS WILL COMBINE WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING SNOW MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR BUT
WIDESPREAD, WITH A GENERAL 2-4" LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN NY AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO, AND 1-2" ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES. A
FEW SPOTS MAY REACH OR EXCEED 4", MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND BATAVIA. THE BEST CHANCE OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOW (4-6") WILL BE FOUND ON THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.
THE WIDESPREAD WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW WILL END QUICKLY FROM WEST
TO EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN NY, AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON, PRODUCING A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT, SO SOME RAIN MAY BRIEFLY MIX IN ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
SUPPORTS SOME MODEST LAKE RESPONSE AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A FEW INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE OFF
LAKE ONTARIO CENTERED ON OSWEGO COUNTY IN A WNW FLOW REGIME. THIS
WILL END THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A THIRD SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, BUT MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION IF THE FORECAST TRACT TRENDS BACK NORTHWARD.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF MODEL VARIABILITY ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A MORE SOUTHERN TRACKING PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY, THEN THE MID ATLANTIC
FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ATOP AN EAST-
WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WILL FORCE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND TRACK ENE. IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN,
THE STRONGER THE LOW BECOMES, THE FARTHER NORTH IT WILL LIKELY
TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VARYING BETWEEN A STRONGER, FARTHER
NORTH LOW TRACK THAT WOULD SPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO OUR AREA,
VS A MUCH WEAKER AND SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED WAVE THAT WOULD ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH DRY WEATHER
PREVAILING.
GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY, THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE
MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE APPROACH OF THE NBM WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW MOVING
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OR TWO OF MODEL SPREAD BEFORE THERE IS MORE
CLARITY ON THE LATE WEEK FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE NEAR AN OLD DECAYING INVERTED
TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO
ENHANCE THE SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
WESTERN FINGER LAKES. AREAS OF IFR/MVFR VSBY AND CIGS WILL CONTINUE
WITHIN THIS AREA OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERNIGHT, THE SNOW ACROSS WESTERN NY WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AND
END. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, FOCUSING FROM JUST
NORTH AND EAST OF KROC TO NEAR KFZY BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE LAST OF
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW, POSSIBLY ENDING WITH A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING. LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA MAY SPREAD SNOW AND IFR INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT IMPACTS MAY ALSO REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE AREA WITH A FARTHER SOUTH LOW TRACK.
FRIDAY...MVFR/LOCAL IFR EARLY IN LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS,
IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
A STRONG NOR'EASTER OVER THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TUESDAY.
MODERATE NORTHERLIES ON LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
PLEASE NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
CONTINUE TO BE ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE
FORECAST.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ012-020-
085.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ019.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ045.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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