109
FXUS61 KBUF 240734
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
234 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE TUG HILL REGION OF
OSWEGO AND LEWIS COUNTIES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CHAUTAUQUA, CATTARAUGUS, SOUTHERN ERIE, AND WYOMING COUNTIES FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOCALIZED LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS
MORNING.
2) ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS EXPECTED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION.
3) A THIRD SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, BUT MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IF THE
FORECAST TRACT TRENDS BACK NORTHWARD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOCALIZED LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE SNOW WILL
DIMINISH THIS MORNING.
NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEPARTING MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NY EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LOCALIZED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AND AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS MORNING SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO, MAINLY FROM THE EASTERN SUBURBS OF ROCHESTER EASTWARD
TOWARDS OSWEGO COUNTY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS OVER LAKE
ONTARIO.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS
EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BEFORE MOVING INTO QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST. DEEP LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND
MODEST MOISTURE WITHIN THE DGZ WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. INITIALLY, MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THE
ONSET ACROSS WESTERN NY AND A QUICK 2-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. AS SNOW MOVES EAST, A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE DOWNSLOPING AND SNOW WILL BE LESS INTENSE ACROSS
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND THE FINGER LAKES REGION. SIMILARLY, MODERATE
SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND A QUICK 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TUG
HILL REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITSELF INTO WESTERN NY BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER, WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
CONTINUES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES IS EXPECTED WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND ON THE TUG HILL,
AND LESS THAN TWO INCHES ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE AND ASCENT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL BECOME LESS INTENSE, HOWEVER A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE TUG
HILL REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE LOW TO MID 30S, UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, WITH LESS THAN
TWO INCHES ACROSS WESTERN NY. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SNOW SQUALLS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT BEHIND THE FRONT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY EAST OF THE LAKES.
STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH
OF I-90 IN WESTERN NY AND 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THE FINGER LAKES REGION WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN 2 INCHES. EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO, 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU
REGION WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE
ERIE AND THE TUG HILL REGION EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A THIRD SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, BUT MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION IF THE FORECAST TRACT TRENDS BACK NORTHWARD.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF MODEL VARIABILITY ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A MORE SOUTHERN TRACKING PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY, THEN THE MID ATLANTIC
FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ATOP AN EAST-
WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WILL FORCE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND TRACK ENE. IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN,
THE STRONGER THE LOW BECOMES, THE FARTHER NORTH IT WILL LIKELY
TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VARYING BETWEEN A STRONGER, FARTHER
NORTH LOW TRACK THAT WOULD SPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO OUR AREA,
VS A MUCH WEAKER AND SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED WAVE THAT WOULD ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH DRY WEATHER
PREVAILING.
GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY, THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE
MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE APPROACH OF THE NBM WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW MOVING
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OR TWO OF MODEL SPREAD BEFORE THERE IS MORE
CLARITY ON THE LATE WEEK FORECAST.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NORTHWEST FLOW AND WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, AS WELL AS MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY EARLY THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL
BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH WHILE FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE REGION TONIGHT, AND A WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. INITIALLY, MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL PRODUCE IFR/LIFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NY AND CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW, POSSIBLY
ENDING WITH A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING. LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA MAY SPREAD SNOW AND IFR INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT IMPACTS MAY ALSO REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE AREA WITH A FARTHER SOUTH LOW TRACK.
FRIDAY...MVFR/LOCAL IFR EARLY IN LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS,
IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
NORTHWESTERLIES ON LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
BEFORE WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
PLEASE NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
CONTINUE TO BE ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE
FORECAST.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NYZ006-008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ012-020-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ019.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LOZ042>044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LOZ045.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK/HSK
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/HSK
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