380
FXUS61 KBUF 241120
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
620 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE FURTHER UPPED POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER EARLY THIS MORNING.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TUG HILL REGION
OF OSWEGO AND LEWIS COUNTIES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR CHAUTAUQUA, CATTARAUGUS,
SOUTHERN ERIE, AND WYOMING COUNTIES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TODAY.
2) ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINOR IMPACTS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION.
3) A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WINTER WEATHER WILL HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TODAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEPARTING MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS MORNING. A
WELL-DEFINED...BUT TRANSIENT NARROW BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS NIAGARA/FAR NORTHERN ERIE/WESTERN GENESEE
COUNTIES...AND MAY PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION
BEFORE THIS AND OTHER LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN
NY LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, MAINLY FROM THE EASTERN SUBURBS OF
ROCHESTER EASTWARD TOWARDS OSWEGO COUNTY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY END BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
BUILDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINOR IMPACTS EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BEFORE MOVING INTO QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST. DEEP LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND
MODEST MOISTURE WITHIN THE DGZ WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. INITIALLY, MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THE
ONSET ACROSS WESTERN NY AND A QUICK 2-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. AS SNOW MOVES EAST, A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE DOWNSLOPING AND SNOW WILL BE LESS INTENSE ACROSS
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND THE FINGER LAKES REGION. SIMILARLY, MODERATE
SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND A QUICK 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TUG
HILL REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LESS THAN TWO INCHES EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITSELF INTO
WESTERN NY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER, WHILE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
DEEP MOISTURE AND ASCENT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL BECOME LESS INTENSE, HOWEVER A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE TUG
HILL REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE LOW TO MID 30S, UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, WITH LESS THAN
TWO INCHES ACROSS WESTERN NY. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SNOW SQUALLS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT BEHIND THE FRONT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY EAST OF THE LAKES.
STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH
OF I-90 IN WESTERN NY AND 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
A BULK OF THE SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
FINGER LAKES REGION WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN 2 INCHES. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO, 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU
REGION WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE
ERIE AND THE TUG HILL REGION EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
KEY MESSAGE 3... A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WINTER
WEATHER WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WE ARE WATCHING IS ANOTHER PACIFIC-BASED SYSTEM THAT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND
SOUTHWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM RESULTING IN LESS SNOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN AN INCH
OF SNOW IS 20-25% ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEPARTING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT NARROW BANDS OF
LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THIS MORNING. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW BANDS
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL
BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH WHILE FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE REGION TONIGHT, AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. INITIALLY, SNOW WILL PRODUCE IFR/LIFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN NY AND CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW, POSSIBLY
ENDING WITH A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING. LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA MAY SPREAD SNOW AND IFR INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT IMPACTS MAY ALSO REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE AREA WITH A FARTHER SOUTH LOW TRACK.
FRIDAY...MVFR/LOCAL IFR EARLY IN LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS,
IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
NORTHWESTERLIES ON LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
BEFORE WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
PLEASE NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
CONTINUE TO BE ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE
FORECAST.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NYZ006-008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LOZ042>044.
DISCUSSION...HSK/JJR
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/HSK
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