862
FXUS61 KBUF 242342
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
642 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
WEDNESDAY.
2) MORE LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED CLIPPER LOW MOVING FROM NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT TO WESTERN QUEBEC BY LATE WEDNESDAY. DPVA AND
HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SNOW TONIGHT. THE SNOW
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY, THEN SPREAD TO THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE WARM
ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW WILL BE BRIEF, LASTING FOR 2-4/3-5 HOURS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION.
ACCUMULATIONS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS, AND 3 TO 5 INCHES IN A
FEW HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS AND WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER, AND ALSO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM UPSLOPE FLOW.
THE WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST OF THE
AREA, AND LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND PRODUCE A FEW MORE BANDS OF
INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SO A FEW
RAINDROPS MAY MIX IN BRIEFLY IN A FEW AREAS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER SPOTTY COATING TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION, POSSIBLY
UP TO 2 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
IT WILL BECOME QUITE WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH THE CLIPPER PASSING BY TO
OUR NORTH. EXPECT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
AND 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE TYPICALLY WINDIER LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF
LAKE ERIE FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS, WHICH WILL HELP TO MITIGATE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MORE LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING,
WITH MODERATE COLD ADVECTION DROPPING 850MB TEMPS TO AROUND -16C
OVER LAKE ONTARIO. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL RISE TO 8-
10K FEET BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY EVENING, THEN GRADUALLY LOWER TO 5K FEET
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.
EXPECT A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING, THEN SETTLE SOUTH
ACROSS THE TUG HILL TO OSWEGO COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THE BAND MAY BECOME
BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH 1-2" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES, BUT FORECAST
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THE BAND SHOULD KEEP MOVING,
HELPING TO KEEP ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ADVISORY RANGE AS THE BAND
TRAVERSES THE REGION.
A LOCALIZED BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY, POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO AT TIMES BACK WEST ACROSS THE ROCHESTER AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BRINGING AN END TO
THE LAKE SNOW.
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OSWEGO COUNTY AND THE TUG HILL PLATEAU FROM LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A SPOTTY COATING TO AN INCH OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE FROM
NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY WESTWARD TO ORLEANS COUNTY.
OFF LAKE ERIE, EXPECT SOME MINOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE LAKE. THE
SETUP IN GENERAL IS LESS FAVORABLE THAN LAKE ONTARIO WITH LOWER
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LESS MOISTURE, ALONG WITH EXTENSIVE ICE COVER
ON THE LAKE. EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A SPOTTY INCH OR SO ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE LAKE, WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS ENDING BEFORE
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY LATE WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION
DRIVEN SNOW WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE WIDESPREAD SNOW
WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF, LASTING FOR A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION.
THE WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON, PRODUCING A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL BE
MVFR/VFR MOST OF THE TIME, BUT ANY OF THE BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BRING SHORT DURATION IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. IT WILL BECOME QUITE
WINDY WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS AREA WIDE AND 30-35 KNOTS
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE INCLUDING KBUF AND KIAG.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM OSWEGO COUNTY TO THE
TUG HILL PLATEAU. VFR/MVFR ELSEWHERE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MARINE
A WELL DEFINED CLIPPER WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC THURSDAY. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT, THEN BECOME WESTERLY WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE FURTHER, WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE.
MODERATE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON
LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE DIMINISHING THURSDAY.
PLEASE NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
CONTINUE TO BE ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE
FORECAST.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NYZ006-008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ012-
019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK/TMA
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/TMA
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