508
FXUS61 KBUF 250655
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
155 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED SNOW RATIOS/SNOW AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT THROUGH TODAY GIVEN THE
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASINGLY MARGINAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS A BIT DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES SURROUNDING THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY.
2) MORE LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS
WAY EAST ACROSS QUEBEC THROUGH TODAY...WITH AN ATTENDANT CLIPPER LOW
TRACKING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO CENTRAL QUEBEC. IN THE PROCESS...
THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WARM ADVECTION AND DCVA OUT AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT/SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DRIVE AN INITIAL ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD SNOW EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION AS OF THIS WRITING...WITH
THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK AND RESULTING IN
THE WARM ADVECTION SNOWS EVENTUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST-EAST IN
THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME. ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS WILL BE A GENERAL 1-
3"...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
BOTH LAKES...PARTICULARLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 4" WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE
BREAK IN THE SNOW...BEFORE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION BETWEEN VERY LATE THIS MORNING/THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS LATTER
FEATURE PASSES THROUGH OUR REGION...IT WILL GENERATE A FEW MORE
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH SOME OF THESE CAPABLE OF BRIEF BURSTS
OF MODERATE SNOW AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THIS BEING
SAID...INCREASINGLY MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES AND THE LATE FEBRUARY
SUN ANGLE WILL HELP TO HOLD ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO AN
INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH UP TO A COUPLE
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF BOTH LAKES. GIVEN
EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...SOME RAIN MAY ALSO MIX IN AT TIMES ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY/FINGER LAKES.
WITH THE CLIPPER PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH...WE CAN ALSO EXPECT IT TO
BECOME FAIRLY WINDY TODAY IN CONCERT WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND PASSAGE OF A 35-45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. THE UPPER
PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BRIEFLY INTERSECT SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT AROUND/IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES...RESULTING IN PEAK WIND
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH IN THE TYPICAL AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE...AND
TO 30-40 MPH FROM THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE OVER TO THE
VICINITY OF WATERTOWN. ELSEWHERE...WIND GUTS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
25-35 MPH RANGE. ALL THIS BEING SAID...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW POTENTIAL GIVEN THAT SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE FREEZING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MORE LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH
MODERATE COLD ADVECTION DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -15C/-16C
OVER LAKE ONTARIO. AS A RESULT...LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
WILL RISE TO 8-10K FEET BRIEFLY THIS EVENING, BEFORE GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO 5K FEET BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.
EXPECT A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION THIS EVENING, THEN SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS
THE TUG HILL TO OSWEGO COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THE BAND MAY BECOME BRIEFLY
HEAVY WITH 1-2" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES, BUT FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THE BAND SHOULD KEEP MOVING, HELPING TO KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ADVISORY RANGE TONIGHT (2-5") AS THE BAND
TRAVERSES THE REGION.
ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
THURSDAY MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" OF SNOW IS LIKELY IN A NARROW
REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO TO NORTHEASTERN
WAYNE, NORTHERN CAYUGA, AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY, AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OFF LAKE ERIE, EXPECT SOME MINOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE LAKE. THE SETUP IN GENERAL IS
MUCH LESS FAVORABLE THAN OVER LAKE ONTARIO WITH LOWER INVERSION
HEIGHTS AND LESS MOISTURE, ALONG WITH EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON THE
LAKE. EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A SPOTTY INCH OR SO ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF THE LAKE, WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS ENDING BEFORE
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO CENTRAL
QUEBEC THROUGH TODAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOWS TO CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THESE GENERALLY DIMINISHING FROM
WEST TO EAST IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME. THESE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
A ROUND OF MOSTLY IFR TO LOWER-END MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH SOME
EMBEDDED SPOTTY LIFR.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FIRST ROUND OF SNOW...THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF RELATIVE BREAK BEFORE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA BETWEEN VERY LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE
SNOW. THE LATTER WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF IFR/LIFR...WITH GENERAL
MVFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAILING. IT WILL ALSO BECOME RATHER
WINDY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS
TO 30-35 KNOTS LIKELY NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE (INCLUDING AT
KBUF/KIAG/KROC)...AROUND 30 KNOTS LIKELY IMMEDIATELY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO (INCLUDING AT KART)...AND TO 20-30 KNOTS ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM OSWEGO COUNTY TO THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU. VFR/MVFR ELSEWHERE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
IFR/MVFR.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO CENTRAL QUEBEC
THROUGH TODAY...THEN WILL WEAKEN WHILE WITHDRAWING FURTHER
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC THURSDAY. BRISK (15-25 KNOT) SOUTHERLIES
OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING...
THEN MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS
ACROSS BOTH LAKES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS THEN
SLACKENING/CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TO JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.
PLEASE NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
CONTINUE TO BE ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE
FORECAST.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ006-008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM
EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK/HSK/JJR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/JJR
MARINE...JJR
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