626
FXUS61 KBUF 251735
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1235 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR TONIGHT HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO NORTHERN
CAYUGA AND WAYNE CO BASED ON SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN GUIDANCE
FOR WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN NY.
2) LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS
EVENING, CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
3) SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF DRY, MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEK BEFORE POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NY.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN NY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM
A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING
JUST ABOUT THE FREEZING MARK, BUT TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOWFALL IN MOST SPOTS. HOWEVER, NOT EXPECTING
MUCH AS FAR AS ACCUMULATION GOES AND MAY SEE RAIN MIX IN THIS
AFTERNOON FOR A FEW SPOTS. STRONGER FRONTAL FORCING TRAVERSING TO
THE EAST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO BRIEF HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD OVERCOME THE
MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY EAST OF ROCHESTER INTO THE
FINGER LAKES REGION. OTHERWISE, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE SOUTHWESTERLY
UP THE LAKE SURFACE BEFORE TURNING WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THIS EVENING, CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING, TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO COOL TO AROUND -14 TO -16 DEGC SUPPORTING
LAKE-INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REACHING 6-8 KFT. THIS WILL SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND INITIALLY W-E ACROSS
OSWEGO CO TAKING ON AN ANTICYCLONIC STRUCTURE OVERNIGHT BENDING
SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CAYUGA AND WAYNE CO. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AND DRYING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE THURSDAY WILL SEE A
GRADUAL END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR LEWIS AND
OSWEGO CO WHILE NORTHERN CAYUGA AND WAYNE CO WERE ADDED FOR TONIGHT
TO REFLECT THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN RECENT GUIDANCE THAT COULD SEE
HEAVY 1-2" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES EXTEND INTO THESE AREAS. OVERALL,
SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE, BUT COULD LOCALLY
BE HIGHER WHERE SNOWBAND RESIDENCE TIME IS LONGER.
KEY MESSAGE 3...SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF DRY, MILDER WEATHER TO
CLOSE OUT THE WEEK BEFORE POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS
NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING JUST TO OUR EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING UP TOWARDS 0 DEGC FRIDAY
BROAD 500MB TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES PASSING IN THE VICINITY STARTING WITH SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE 980MB SURFACE LOW PROGRESSING
NORTHEAST FROM JAMES BAY MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY, HOWEVER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MAKING IT INTO THE AREA IS LOW AT THIS TIME
UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THIS SYSTEM'S WAKE WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING TOWARDS -20 DEGC, BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 10TH
PERCENTILE FOR EARLY MARCH. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LOOK TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT
WEEK. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH AT THIS TIME FOR MUCH SPECIFICS
ON TIMING FOR ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK. THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN
EVEN BE NOTED IN THE LATEST NBM INTERQUARTILE RANGE FOR TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK WITH THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING BETWEEN 25 AND 47
DEGF.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO CENTRAL
QUEBEC TODAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FINISHING ITS PASSAGE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING WARM ADVECTION SNOWS AND ATTENDANT
IFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THROUGH 13Z-
14Z...WHILE A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE FOUND ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THAT TIME.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FIRST ROUND OF SNOW...THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF RELATIVE BREAK BEFORE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA BETWEEN VERY LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE
SNOW. THE LATTER WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF IFR/LIFR...WITH GENERAL
MVFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAILING. IT WILL ALSO BECOME RATHER
WINDY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS
TO 30-35 KNOTS LIKELY NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE (INCLUDING AT KBUF/
KIAG/KROC)...AROUND 30 KNOTS LIKELY IMMEDIATELY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
(INCLUDING AT KART)...AND TO 20-30 KNOTS ELSEWHERE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AND LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR THEN SETTING UP EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO FROM OSWEGO COUNTY TO THE TUG HILL TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE
GENERAL MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MORNING LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS EAST-SUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON...
OTHERWISE VFR/MVFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
IFR/MVFR.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO CENTRAL QUEBEC
THROUGH TODAY...THEN WILL WEAKEN WHILE WITHDRAWING FURTHER
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC THURSDAY. BRISK (15-25 KNOT) SOUTHERLIES
OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING...
THEN MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS
ACROSS BOTH LAKES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS THEN
SLACKENING/CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TO JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.
PLEASE NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
CONTINUE TO BE ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE
FORECAST.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ004>006-
008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
LOZ043>045.
DISCUSSION...BROTHERS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/JJR
MARINE...JJR
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