584
FXUS61 KBUF 252343
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
643 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR TONIGHT HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO NORTHERN
CAYUGA AND WAYNE CO BASED ON SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN GUIDANCE
FOR WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS
EVENING, CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
2) SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF DRY, MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK
BEFORE POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THIS EVENING, CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING, TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO COOL TO AROUND -14 TO -16 DEGC SUPPORTING
LAKE-INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REACHING 6-8 KFT. THIS WILL SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND INITIALLY W-E ACROSS
OSWEGO CO TAKING ON AN ANTICYCLONIC STRUCTURE OVERNIGHT BENDING
SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CAYUGA AND WAYNE CO. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AND DRYING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE THURSDAY WILL SEE A
GRADUAL END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR LEWIS AND
OSWEGO CO WHILE NORTHERN CAYUGA AND WAYNE CO WERE ADDED FOR TONIGHT
TO REFLECT THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN RECENT GUIDANCE THAT COULD SEE
HEAVY 1-2" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES EXTEND INTO THESE AREAS. OVERALL,
SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE, BUT COULD LOCALLY
BE HIGHER WHERE SNOWBAND RESIDENCE TIME IS LONGER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF DRY, MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEK BEFORE POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING JUST TO OUR EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING UP TOWARDS 0 DEGC FRIDAY
BROAD 500MB TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES PASSING IN THE VICINITY STARTING WITH SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE 980MB SURFACE LOW PROGRESSING
NORTHEAST FROM JAMES BAY MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY, HOWEVER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MAKING IT INTO THE AREA IS LOW AT THIS TIME
UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THIS SYSTEM'S WAKE WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING TOWARDS -20 DEGC, BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 10TH
PERCENTILE FOR EARLY MARCH. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LOOK TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT
WEEK. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH AT THIS TIME FOR MUCH SPECIFICS
ON TIMING FOR ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK. THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN
EVEN BE NOTED IN THE LATEST NBM INTERQUARTILE RANGE FOR TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK WITH THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING BETWEEN 25 AND 47
DEGF.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THIS EVENING WITH SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND BRING A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS, ALTHOUGH
THE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE, WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF,
INTERMITTENT VSBY REDUCTIONS THIS EVENING.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL SET UP EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM WAYNE
COUNTY TO THE TUG HILL TONIGHT, WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR/VFR IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND JEFFERSON/NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF LAKE INFLUENCES AS SOME DRIER AIR
WORKS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. KROC WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LAKE BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO, SO JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH ASSOCIATED LAKE CLOUDS MAKE IT WILL DETERMINE WHETHER VFR OR
MVFR PREVAILS THERE, WITH THE SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT MORE LIKELY TO
SEE MVFR CONDITIONS.
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING, WITH LOCALIZED MVFR/LOW VFR
CIGS FROM KROC TO OSWEGO COUNTY IN AND AROUND LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS OFF LAKE ONTARIO.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...VFR/MVFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
IFR/MVFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL QUEBEC TONIGHT, THEN WEAKEN WHILE
WITHDRAWING FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS BOTH LAKES THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS
THEN SLACKENING/CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING.
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.
PLEASE NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
CONTINUE TO BE ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE
FORECAST.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ004>006-
008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
LOZ043>045.
DISCUSSION...BROTHERS/TMA
AVIATION...JM/TMA
MARINE...JJR/TMA
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