558
FXUS61 KBUF 260535
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1235 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR LEWIS COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING WITH MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
2) SHORT LIVED DRY AND MILDER WEATHER FRIDAY, THEN TURNING COLDER
FOR SATURDAY-MONDAY...BEFORE A MORE ACTIVE AND EVENTUALLY MILDER
PATTERN ARRIVES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING WITH MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS.
FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A PASSING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL
ONLY SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF FRESH ACCUMULATION. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
THIS MORNING. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 7K FEET
THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL LOWER STEADILY TO 5K FEET BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR BUILD OVER LAKE ONTARIO.
AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT BRUSHES BY LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW HOURS OF MORE ORGANIZED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MOVING FROM OSWEGO COUNTY SOUTHWARD INTO WAYNE AND
NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. FARTHER WEST, A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY BRUSH THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE FROM ROCHESTER TO
NIAGARA/ORLEANS COUNTIES. LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS, DIMINISHING
MOISTURE, AND RAPIDLY BACKING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO QUICKLY WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING, ENDING BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR, ONLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN
MOST PLACES WITH SOME LOCALIZED 2-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OSWEGO, NORTHERN CAYUGA, AND WAYNE COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SHORT LIVED DRY AND MILDER WEATHER FRIDAY, THEN
TURNING COLDER FOR SATURDAY-MONDAY...BEFORE A MORE ACTIVE AND
EVENTUALLY MILDER PATTERN ARRIVES NEXT WEEK.
ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
WILL SLIDE EAST AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTLINES...
WITH AN INCREASING SW RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON ITS BACKSIDE
ALLOWING US TO FINISH OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MAKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO/
QUEBEC WILL THEN PUSH A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. WHILE THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE STARVED
FOR SUPPORT AND WILL THUS PROBABLY ONLY PRODUCE SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS (AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AT THAT)...ITS PASSAGE WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR MUCH
COLDER AIR TO RE-ENTER OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT TO
THE NORTH OF THE DEPARTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE SUITE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES LENDS AT LEAST
SOME CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER QUICK ROUND
OF LIGHT TO MODEST SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL...THOUGH IN GENERAL THE CHANCES
FOR THIS APPEAR TO BE GREATER CLOSER TO THE NY/PA LINE. FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD
AIRMASS (850 MB TEMPS IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE INITIALLY) RESULTING
IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF
METEOROLOGICAL SPRING. AFTER THAT TIME...CHANGES APPEAR TO BE AFOOT
AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES/ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSAGES WITHIN A
DEAMPLIFYING LARGE-SCALE FLOW LOOK TO LEAD TO THE ADVENT OF A MORE
UNSETTLED AND EVENTUALLY MILDER REGIME ACROSS OUR REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS ON
HOW WE GET THERE REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS DISTANT VANTAGE
POINT.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WEAK ASCENT FROM A PASSING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH MAINLY
VFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MORE LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PRODUCE A
SMALL AREA OF IFR CONDITIONS OVER AND ESE OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS
MORNING, FROM NEAR KFZY TO JUST NORTH AND EAST OF KROC. THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AND AREAS OF LIGHT FLURRIES WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END
BY MIDDAY, WITH ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
TO THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT, WITH VFR PREVAILING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF IFR WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY.
SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARDS LABRADOR, WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
COMING TO AN END.
THE NEXT PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
PLEASE NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
CONTINUE TO BE ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE
FORECAST.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ004>006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LOZ043>045.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK/JJR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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