009
FXUS61 KBUF 111825
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
225 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE
FRIDAY, AS WELL AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKES
LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
2) LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
3) GUSTY WINDS TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY CLOSE
TO THE LAKES.
4) A PAIR OF FRONTS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION, AS WELL AS
A MIX OF RAIN AND ACCUMULATING SNOW.
5) ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR RAIN, SNOW, STRONG WINDS, AND A
RETURN WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN NEW YORK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER WAVE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER AS WELL. THE
RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY MARCH IN A STRONGLY
FORCED ENVIRONMENT. THE LAST WAVE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL EXIT FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A FEW
MORE ROUNDS OF MORE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM LAST NIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL
RANGE FROM 1.0" TO 1.5" IN MOST LOCATIONS, SENDING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF INTO THE CREEKS AND RIVERS. MORE ON THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPC CONTINUES THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ARE
IN PLACE AS A POWERFUL 70+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LACK OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUDS
TODAY. NONETHELESS, WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS ALOFT, ANY CONVECTIVE
SHOWER (EVEN WITHOUT THUNDER) MAY BRING LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS
TO THE SURFACE, WHICH HAS OCCURRED IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDER ALONG THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY HAVE THE BEST
RISK OF LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE ADDED DYNAMICS OF THE
STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL RAPIDLY END
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...GUSTY WINDS TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY
CLOSE TO THE LAKES.
A SURFACE LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF
LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE LOW TRACK IS
MUCH CLOSER TO OUR REGION THAN THE CLASSIC HIGH WIND SETUP FOR
WESTERN NY. MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED IN THE WARM
SECTOR, BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET IS IMPRESSIVE WITH 60-70 KNOTS OF WIND
EXTENDING DOWN TO BELOW 5K FEET IN THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN A REGION OF WARM
ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD RAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR, WHICH WILL KEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES POOR AND LIMIT MIXING POTENTIAL FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. THAT SAID, ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR POSSIBLY A
CONVECTIVE FINELINE ALONG THE SURGING COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING COULD POTENTIALLY MIX DOWN LOCALIZED STRONGER WIND
GUSTS, EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF A WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING 40-45 KNOTS AVAILABLE NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER ONCE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN THE COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS IN THE 30 TO
40 MPH RANGE IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH CLOSE TO
THE LAKESHORES.
GIVEN THE ABOVE EXPECTATIONS, GUSTS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MOST OF THE TIME. OUR CURRENT PLAN IS TO
HANDLE ANY SHORT DURATION GUSTS WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR THE COLD
FRONT WITH SPS AND/OR SVR SHOULD THE NEED ARISE.
KEY MESSAGE 4...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW, RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS TO WESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG BUT COMPACT CLIPPER-TYPE LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REACH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THERE IT WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND LOSE A BIT OF STRENGTH
AS IT MOVES OVER AND EAST OF LAKE HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY FRIDAY
EVENING, BEFORE REACHING FAR SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY MONRING.
MID-RANGE MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES INDICATE INCREASING
SPREAD IN REGARDS TO TRACK AND DEGREE OF WEAKENING OF THE SFC LOW IN
THIS TIMEFRAME WHICH WILL HEAVILY INFLUENCE THE ASSOCIATED JET
ENERGY/FORCING THAT MAKES IT INTO THE CWA. EVEN WITH THIS VARIANCE
IN MIND, THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION AND BRING BOTH A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO POTENTIALLY STRONG
WINDS AND MIXED PRECIPITATION.
WINDS:
THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DRAG A VERY STRONG 70KT+ LLJ OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL THEN BE AIMED
IN THE DIRECTION OF WNY. HOWEVER, THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO
THIS JET WEAKENING A SOLID 10-15KTS ON ARRIVAL, AS WELL AS BEING
WITHIN THE SYSTEM'S WAA REGIME. THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE STRONGEST GUSTS AND LIMIT THEM SPATIALLY TO THE
TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS OFF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. STILL, ADVISORY-
LEVEL SSE WIND GUSTS OF 40-50MPH SEEM LIKE A STRONG POSSIBILITY IN
THIS AREA. BOTH THE REFS & HREF ADVERTISE 80-100% PROBABILITIES OF
GUSTS >45MPH ALONG THE RIDGE, THOUGH WOULD LIKE TO SEE A BIT MORE
CONSISTENCY FROM OTHER GUIDANCE PACKAGES AND SEE HOW THE HI-RES
MODELS TREND OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH WNY IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE THE RESIDUAL JET
REMAINS OVERHEAD. NOW WITHIN THE CAA REGIME, MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DEEPER MIXING AND FUNNELING DOWN THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE ERIE
COULD EASILY LEAD TO A WINDOW OF 40-50MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND IMMEDIATELY DUE EAST OF THE LAKE. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIMEFRAME AND ALSO MOVING BEYOND THE SCOPE OF
MANY HI-RES MODELS, ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE LOW
WILL TRACK IN EVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE.
THE LLJ WILL FURTHER WEAKEN BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT EAST OF
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH SHOULD LEAVE US WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN A MODEST BREEZE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION:
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS, THE INCOMING LLJ ON THE NOSE OF THE
SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST PRECIP SHOULD
START OUT AS ALL OR MOSTLY WET SNOW BEFORE WAA CAUSES THE DOMINANT
PTYPE TO BECOME RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST. THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL
BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE PRESENT WITH THE COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE IT LOOKS QUITE LIMITED OVERALL. THEREFORE WHILE THE
PTYPE SHOULD SWITCH BACK OVER TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT, ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WNY.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MORE IMPACTFUL OR EVEN HEADLINE-WORTHY SNOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARM FRONT
AND WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS PROVIDING UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENTS AND
COLDER SFC TEMPS, MULTIPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE TUG
HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY WATCH HOW MUCH
MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND HOW MUCH LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS PRESENT AS 850MB TEMPERATURES APPEAR MARGINAL.
KEY MESSAGE 5...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF RAIN,
SNOW, STRONG WINDS, AND A RETURN WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
NEW YORK.
AS THE ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS, A
STRONGER PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL DIG A DEEPER, LARGER SCALE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS LARGER SCALE SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE AN EXPANSIVE WARM
SECTOR WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW DRIVING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE
NORMAL BRIEFLY SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH
PRECIPITATION TRAVERSING THE REGION. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY WHILE ALSO LEADING TO
AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
SYSTEM'S WAKE. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE GRAND ENSEMBLE PLACES
PROBABILITIES OF 850MB WINDS >50 KT AT 60-80% WITH A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN MI ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
INTO QUEBEC THAT MAY NEED FUTURE MONITORING FOR STRONG WIND
POTENTIAL. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY STILL NEEDS TO BE RESOLVED WITH THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, WHICH WILL HAVE
RAMIFICATION TO PTYPE AND STRENGTH OF WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NY FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THIS UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDS THE TIMING FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON LATEST CLUSTER
ANALYSIS. THE INTERQUARTILE RANGE FOR 850MB TEMPS IS QUITE WIDE
BETWEEN 2 TO -12 DEGC EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT MOST MEMBERS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH EVENTUALLY DROPPING AROUND -15 TO -20 DEGC, BELOW THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL 2ND PERCENTILE FOR MID-MARCH.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED STRONG WIND
GUSTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY
WILL CONTINUE IN THE AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT, WITH A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING TO
MOSTLY VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AREAWIDE AND A FEW GUSTS OF AROUND 40 KNOTS
POSSIBLE CLOSE TO THE LAKESHORES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW DEVELOPING AND THEN CHANGING
TO RAIN ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. VERY WINDY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER. WINDY.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN. WINDY.
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. WINDY.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS
EVENING TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT, WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. WEST WINDS WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH A PERIOD OF GALES
LIKELY ON LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THURSDAY.
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF GALE FORCE WINDS
LIKELY.
PLEASE NOTE...MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
CONTINUE TO BE ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE
FORECAST.
HYDROLOGY
ONGOING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT RAPID SNOWMELT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK AND SWE REMAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. RAIN
WILL BRING ANOTHER 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION, INCLUDING THE NORTH COUNTRY.
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ONGOING
SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL. THE BLACK RIVER WILL LIKELY FLOOD
STARTING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY, WITH FLOODING
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND ON THIS SLOW RESPONDING RIVER.
THE LATEST FORECAST SHOWS THE BLACK RIVER AT WATERTOWN REACHING
THE HIGH END OF MINOR FLOOD STAGE, BUT MODERATE STAGE IS
POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS.
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON MANY OTHER RIVERS THAT DRAIN THE
TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LOZ030.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR LOZ042-062.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK/PP
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK
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