470
FXUS61 KBUF 120701
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
301 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING.
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON, LEWIS, AND OSWEGO
COUNTIES, SPECIFICALLY THE TUG HILL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER WEATHER, WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY.
2) A PAIR OF FRONTS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION, AS
WELL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND ACCUMULATING SNOW.
3) ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR RAIN, SNOW, STRONG
WINDS, AND A RETURN TO WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN NY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COOLER WEATHER, WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND
MID-WEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. A SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MOISTURE
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS NEAR THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STEADY RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DRIER AIR ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN NY THIS MORNING, HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -11C WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S AROUND DAYBREAK, AND HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S, 20S ON THE TUG HILL. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AN
UPTICK IN UPSTREAM MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS AFTERNOON. NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
A BROAD AREA OF 30-40 KNOTS BETWEEN 925-850MB WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WILL SUPPORT GUSTY, NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH THIS MORNING, WITH
THE HIGHEST GUSTS NEAR THE LAKESHORES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW,
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO WESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG BUT COMPACT CLIPPER-TYPE LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REACH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THERE IT WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND LOSE A BIT OF STRENGTH
AS IT MOVES OVER AND EAST OF LAKE HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY FRIDAY
EVENING, BEFORE REACHING FAR SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY MONRING.
MID-RANGE MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES INDICATE INCREASING
SPREAD IN REGARDS TO TRACK AND DEGREE OF WEAKENING OF THE SFC LOW IN
THIS TIMEFRAME WHICH WILL HEAVILY INFLUENCE THE ASSOCIATED JET
ENERGY/FORCING THAT MAKES IT INTO THE CWA. EVEN WITH THIS VARIANCE
IN MIND, THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION AND BRING BOTH A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO POTENTIALLY STRONG
WINDS AND MIXED PRECIPITATION.
WINDS:
THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DRAG A VERY STRONG 70KT+ LLJ OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL THEN BE AIMED
IN THE DIRECTION OF WNY. HOWEVER, THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO
THIS JET WEAKENING A SOLID 10-15KTS ON ARRIVAL, AS WELL AS BEING
WITHIN THE SYSTEM'S WAA REGIME. THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE STRONGEST GUSTS AND LIMIT THEM SPATIALLY TO THE
TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS OFF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. STILL, ADVISORY-
LEVEL SSE WIND GUSTS OF 40-50MPH SEEM LIKE A STRONG POSSIBILITY IN
THIS AREA. BOTH THE REFS & HREF ADVERTISE 80-100% PROBABILITIES OF
GUSTS >45MPH ALONG THE RIDGE, THOUGH WOULD LIKE TO SEE A BIT MORE
CONSISTENCY FROM OTHER GUIDANCE PACKAGES AND SEE HOW THE HI-RES
MODELS TREND OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH WNY IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE THE RESIDUAL JET
REMAINS OVERHEAD. NOW WITHIN THE CAA REGIME, MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DEEPER MIXING AND FUNNELING DOWN THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE ERIE
COULD EASILY LEAD TO A WINDOW OF 40-50MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND IMMEDIATELY DUE EAST OF THE LAKE. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIMEFRAME AND ALSO MOVING BEYOND THE SCOPE OF
MANY HI-RES MODELS, ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE LOW
WILL TRACK IN EVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE.
THE LLJ WILL FURTHER WEAKEN BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT EAST OF
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH SHOULD LEAVE US WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN A MODEST BREEZE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION:
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS, THE INCOMING LLJ ON THE NOSE OF THE
SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST PRECIP SHOULD
START OUT AS ALL OR MOSTLY WET SNOW BEFORE WAA CAUSES THE DOMINANT
PTYPE TO BECOME RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST. THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL
BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE PRESENT WITH THE COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE IT LOOKS QUITE LIMITED OVERALL. THEREFORE WHILE THE
PTYPE SHOULD SWITCH BACK OVER TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT, ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WNY.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MORE IMPACTFUL OR EVEN HEADLINE-WORTHY SNOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARM FRONT
AND WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS PROVIDING UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENTS AND
COLDER SFC TEMPS, MULTIPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE TUG
HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY WATCH HOW MUCH
MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND HOW MUCH LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS PRESENT AS 850MB TEMPERATURES APPEAR MARGINAL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF RAIN,
SNOW, STRONG WINDS, AND A RETURN WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES TO
WESTERN NEW YORK.
AS THE ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS, A
STRONGER PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL DIG A DEEPER, LARGER SCALE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS LARGER SCALE SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE AN EXPANSIVE WARM
SECTOR WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW DRIVING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE
NORMAL BRIEFLY SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH
PRECIPITATION TRAVERSING THE REGION. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY WHILE ALSO LEADING TO
AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
SYSTEM'S WAKE. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE GRAND ENSEMBLE PLACES
PROBABILITIES OF 850MB WINDS >50 KT AT 60-80% WITH A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN MI ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
INTO QUEBEC THAT MAY NEED FUTURE MONITORING FOR STRONG WIND
POTENTIAL. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY STILL NEEDS TO BE RESOLVED WITH THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, WHICH WILL HAVE
RAMIFICATION TO PTYPE AND STRENGTH OF WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NY FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THIS UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDS THE TIMING FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON LATEST CLUSTER
ANALYSIS. THE INTERQUARTILE RANGE FOR 850MB TEMPS IS QUITE WIDE
BETWEEN 2 TO -12 DEGC EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT MOST MEMBERS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH EVENTUALLY DROPPING AROUND -15 TO -20 DEGC, BELOW THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL 2ND PERCENTILE FOR MID-MARCH.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
A MAJORITY OF THE REGION WITH IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TODAY. IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT
GUSTY, NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE LAKESHORES THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN NY TODAY. A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW DEVELOPING AND THEN CHANGING TO
RAIN ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWERS. WINDY.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN. WINDY.
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. WINDY.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING, WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT NEAR THE HUDSON RIVER. STRONG, WESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE LAKES, WITH GALES ON LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY.
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF GALE FORCE WINDS.
PLEASE NOTE, MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
CONTINUE TO BE ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE
FORECAST.
HYDROLOGY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND
A HALF WERE OBSERVED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. ADDITIONAL RAIN
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. WARMER WEATHER OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS RESULTED IN
SNOW MELT, WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE BLACK RIVER
BASIN. SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK AND SWE REMAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ONGOING
SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL. THE BLACK RIVER WILL LIKELY FLOOD
STARTING TODAY, WITH FLOODING CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND ON
THIS SLOW RESPONDING RIVER. THE LATEST FORECAST SHOWS THE BLACK
RIVER AT WATERTOWN REACHING THE HIGH END OF MINOR FLOOD STAGE,
BUT MODERATE STAGE IS POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND, WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON MANY OTHER RIVERS THAT DRAIN THE
TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ006>008.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ007-008.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR NYZ019.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ040-041.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LOZ030.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LOZ042-062.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LOZ043>045-
063>065.
DISCUSSION...HSK/PP/THOMAS
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/HSK
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/HSK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page