854
FXUS61 KBUF 120820
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
420 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING.
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON, LEWIS, AND OSWEGO
COUNTIES, SPECIFICALLY THE TUG HILL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER WEATHER, WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY.
2) IMPACTFUL SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION LATE
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
3. WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED FROM FINGER LAKES REGION WESTWARD.
4) ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER DYNAMIC SYSTEM BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY FOR RAIN,
SNOW, AND STRONG WINDS, ALONG WITH A RETURN TO WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR WESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL NY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COOLER WEATHER, WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND
MID-WEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. A SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MOISTURE
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS NEAR THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STEADY RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DRIER AIR ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN NY THIS MORNING, HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -11C WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S AROUND DAYBREAK, AND HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S, 20S ON THE TUG HILL. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AN
UPTICK IN UPSTREAM MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS AFTERNOON. NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
A BROAD AREA OF 30-40 KNOTS BETWEEN 925-850MB WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WILL SUPPORT GUSTY, NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH THIS MORNING, WITH
THE HIGHEST GUSTS NEAR THE LAKESHORES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...IMPACTFUL SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.
A COMPACT, BUT STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY MORNING TO FAR SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY MORNING
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY MORNING,
STARTING OFF AS A LOW IMPACT WET SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NY,
HOWEVER WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL FORCE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 30S AND
EVEN SOME LOWER 40S. AS THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON,
EXPECT SNOW TO START THERE AS WELL, MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH P-TYPE
REMAINING ALL SNOW ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN DACKS WHERE
SEVERAL OR MORE INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE BY LATE IN THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. 850MB
TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE -10C TO -12C RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT. WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE WILL HELP CONTRIBUTE TO LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE SNOWS
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, WITH AN ADDITIONAL SEVERAL OR MORE INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN DACKS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY
FROM THE REGION. MUCH LESSER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY AS DEEPER
MOISTURE IS STRIPPED AWAY, WITH MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH IMPACTFUL SNOWS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR LEWIS, JEFFERSON, AND OSWEGO COUNTIES FROM FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY,
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED FROM FINGER LAKES REGION WESTWARD.
A COMPACT, BUT STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY MORNING TO FAR SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY MORNING
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A VERY
STRONG 70 KNOT+ LLJ OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE BASIN
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY, THEN INTO FAR WESTERN NY FRIDAY MORNING. OF
NOTE, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO FAR SOUTHERN QUEBEC, LEADING TO A WEAKENING OF THE LLJ SOME
10-15 KNOTS, AS WELL AS BEING WITHIN THE WAA REGIME IN ADVANCE OF
THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT. THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND POTENTIALLY INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON, THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
STRONGEST GUSTS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE
AREAS OFF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE, WHERE SOME LOCALIZED WARNING LEVEL
GUSTS LOOK POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE IN CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY. NEAR WARNING LEVEL WSW TO W GUSTS LOOK POSSIBLE JUST EAST OF
THE LAKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE CAA REGIME IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH THIS IN MIND, A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH WESTERN NY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE THE RESIDUAL LLJ
REMAINS OVERHEAD. NOW WITHIN THE CAA REGIME, DEEPER MIXING WILL
OCCUR AND FUNNELING DOWN THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE ERIE MAY LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF 40-50 MPH+ GUSTS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND EAST OF
LAKE ERIE (ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE LAKE AND ACROSS THE
HILLTOPS). AS THE LLJ CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT, IT
MAY STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME 45+ MPH GUSTS IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AS IT SLIDES FURTHER EAST. THE LLJ WILL
SLIDE EAST SATURDAY WITH WINDS GRADUALLY COMING DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 4...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER DYNAMIC SYSTEM BRINGS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR RAIN, SNOW, AND STRONG WINDS, ALONG WITH A RETURN TO
WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES FOR WESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL NY.
AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS, A STRONGER
PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL DIG A DEEPER, LARGER SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS
LARGER SCALE SYSTEM WILL HAVE AN EXPANSIVE WARM SECTOR WITH A DEEP,
WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH A SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT ON MONDAY, WITH
AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING UNDER A COLD WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE SYSTEM'S WAKE AS 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
DOWN INTO THE -15C TO -20C RANGE (VERY COLD FOR THIS POINT IN THE
SEASON). LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY STRONG LLJ
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM
EASTERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT THAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARD TO THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH
WILL HAVE RAMIFICATIONS TO P-TYPE AND STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
A MAJORITY OF THE REGION WITH IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TODAY. IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT
GUSTY, NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE LAKESHORES THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN NY TODAY. A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW DEVELOPING AND THEN CHANGING TO
RAIN ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWERS. WINDY.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN. WINDY.
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. WINDY.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING, WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT NEAR THE HUDSON RIVER. STRONG, WESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE LAKES, WITH GALES ON LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY.
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF GALE FORCE WINDS.
PLEASE NOTE, MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
CONTINUE TO BE ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE
FORECAST.
HYDROLOGY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND
A HALF WERE OBSERVED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. ADDITIONAL RAIN
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. WARMER WEATHER OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS RESULTED IN
SNOW MELT, WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE BLACK RIVER
BASIN. SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK AND SWE REMAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ONGOING
SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL. THE BLACK RIVER WILL LIKELY FLOOD
STARTING TODAY, WITH FLOODING CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND ON
THIS SLOW RESPONDING RIVER. THE LATEST FORECAST SHOWS THE BLACK
RIVER AT WATERTOWN REACHING THE HIGH END OF MINOR FLOOD STAGE,
BUT MODERATE STAGE IS POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND, WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON MANY OTHER RIVERS THAT DRAIN THE
TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ006>008.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ007-008.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR NYZ019.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ040-041.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LOZ030.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LOZ042-062.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR LOZ042-062.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LOZ043>045-
063>065.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
DISCUSSION...HSK/JM/THOMAS
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/HSK
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/HSK
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