163
FXUS61 KBUF 130002
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
802 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
HIGH WIND WARNING.
HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NIAGARA FRONTIER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH WIND ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE
OUTSIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING. GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL IS WRAPPED INTO THIS
PRODUCT.
THE FLOOD WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TURNING VERY WINDY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE FINGER LAKES REGION.
2) WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY,
WITH CONTINUED SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING LEADING TO IMPACTFUL
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.
3) A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
TEMPERATURE SWINGS, FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TURNING VERY WINDY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION.
A COMPACT CLIPPER SFC LOW AND PARTIALLY OCCLUDED SFC FRONT WILL
CROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FRIDAY, THEN SLIDE NORTHEAST AND PASS
JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES SO, THE SYSTEM
WILL BRIEFLY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED, CAUSING SOME WEAKENING FROM
ABOUT 990MB TO 1000MB. WHILE AT PEAK STRENGTH THIS LOW WILL FEATURE
AN IMPRESSIVE 70KT+ LLJ OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, THOUGH BY THE TIME IT
REACHES LAKE HURON THE JET WILL DIMINISH IN BOTH AREAL EXTENT AND
MAGNITUDE TO AROUND 60 OR 65KTS, WHICH IS STILL QUITE STRONG. THIS
INITIAL LLJ WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING FRIDAY MORNING UPON ITS ARRIVAL. AS THE
JET REACHES WNY, THE ADDED MECHANICAL MIXING FROM DOWNSLOPE WINDS
OFF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF WINDOW OF LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS (GUSTS TO 55MPH) ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE IN
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY.
IT IS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAT
WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS WNY WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE
LLJ STILL OVERHEAD. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE CAA
REGIME WITH FUNNELING OF WINDS DOWN THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE ERIE
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG SFC WIND GUSTS 50-60MPH
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE. HI-
RES GUIDANCE INDICATES PRECIP ACTIVITY ACROSS WNY BECOMING
INCREASINGLY SCATTERED IN THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL, AND WHILE IT'S
UNLIKELY WE'LL CLEAR OUT SUBSTANTIALLY, ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER THAT EMERGE WILL ONLY FURTHER AID IN THE MIXING DOWN OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE A BIT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING ONCE THE FRONT MAKES SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS
AWAY FROM WNY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE BACK-END OF THE NOW
WESTERLY LLJ WHICH LOOKS TO WRAP BACK INTO WNY DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME SMALL BUT
IMPACTFUL DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THIS JET AS IT MOVES IN,
BUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE
INITIAL JET BEHIND THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON IT'S EXACT TRACK, THIS IS
ACTUALLY WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS COULD OCCUR ACROSS A SIZABLE
FOOTPRINT OF WNY. ONCE IT MOVES THROUGH AND FURTHER DIMINISHES TO
THE EAST, WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MORE SUBSTANTIALLY RELAX THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY.
OUTSIDE OF WNY, THE INCREASING WINDS ALOFT, DOWNSLOPE MIXING, THEN
FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING CAA SHOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BUT
SPORADIC ADVISORY-LEVEL GUSTS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THIS
EVENT IS NOT A 'SLAM DUNK' FOR MUCH OF THE WARNING OR ADVISORY AREA
DUE TO THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE SFC LOW AND JET, AND COMPARED TO
HIGH WIND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE REGION, THE SFC LOW TYPICALLY TRACKS A
BIT FURTHER NORTH. THUS, WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LOWER
END OF THE SCALE FOR BOTH HEADLINE TYPES.
ONE OTHER POTENTIAL ISSUE...THE WINDS QUICKLY SNAPPING SOUTHWESTERLY
AND INCREASING ALONG LAKE ERIE FRIDAY COULD CAUSE FAST ICE ON THE
EASTERN END OF THE LAKE TO BEGIN MOVING AND PILING AGAINST SOME
AREAS AROUND THE BUFFALO HARBOR. WHILE THIS SETUP BEARS SOME
SIMILARITIES TO THE LAST BIG ICE SHOVE BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 2019, THE
STATIC LAKE ERIE WATER LEVEL IS ABOUT 2.5FT LOWER COMPARED TO THAT
YEAR WHICH WILL GREATLY HAMPER THE CHANCES FOR THIS EVENT TO HAVE
MUCH IMPACT. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY
LAKESHORE FLOOD PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN IN MOST
AREAS FRIDAY, WITH CONTINUED SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING LEADING
TO IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL
AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
THE SAME CLIPPER SYSTEM AS DESCRIBED IN KEY MESSAGE (1) WILL ALSO
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE MORNING, STARTING OFF AS A WET SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN NY. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS, THOUGH
ARRIVAL TIME LOOKS TO BE AFTER THE PEAK MORNING COMMUTE AND THE
STRONG MID-MARCH SUN SHOULD HELP MITIGATE IMPACTS TO ROADS. WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FORCE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS, WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 30S AND EVEN SOME LOWER
40S.
AS THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, EXPECT SNOW TO START
THERE AS WELL, MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH P-TYPE REMAINING ALL SNOW
ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN DACKS WHERE SEVERAL OR MORE INCHES
MAY ACCUMULATE BY LATE IN THE DAY. THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AIDED
BY AN AREA OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT RIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE WARM
FRONT, WITH SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY HIGH ENOUGH AT TIMES TO OVERCOME
WARMING OF THE GROUND FROM THE DAYTIME SUN.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
850MB TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE -10C TO -12C RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT.
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL HELP CONTRIBUTE TO LAKE ENHANCED AND
UPSLOPE SNOWS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, WITH AN ADDITIONAL SEVERAL OR
MORE INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN DACKS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, WITH
MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO ELSEWHERE.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL FURTHER TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS STRIPPED AWAY, WITH MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. DUE TO THE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS, HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARNING WITH
THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGE 4...A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE TEMPERATURE SWINGS, FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF QUIET WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY
AS ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY. STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ATOP
THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW SUNDAY
MORNING, WHICH WILL THEN CHANGE TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING AS MUCH WARMER
AIR ARRIVES IN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. THERE COULD BE
SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES SURGE
WELL ABOVE FREEZING LATER IN THE DAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, A SHARP FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
EVOLVE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION AS THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM PHASE. STRONG MID LEVEL AND JETSTREAM DYNAMICS WILL
COUPLE WITH A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT TO PRODUCE A STRONG SURFACE
CYCLONE, REACHING PEAK INTENSITY MONDAY OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
BEFORE MOVING TO WESTERN QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP IN
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION. THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD AND FORCING SUGGEST A
RISK OF A LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE EASTWARD SURGING COLD FRONT.
IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE WIND, STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING 50-60+
KNOT WINDS AVAILABLE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS MONDAY.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL POUR BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY AS THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
COLD WNW FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT/
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND LOCALIZED MVFR DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY FADE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BUILDS OVERHEAD. OUTSIDE OF THE ABOVE GENERAL
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH STILL-BRISK W-WNW WINDS
EARLY THIS EVENING RAPIDLY DIMINISHING...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT
OF LIGHT SOUTHERLIES/SOUTHWESTERLIES OVERNIGHT.
A COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY. THIS WILL FIRST CAUSE WET SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING WITH A MIX OF MVFR CIGS AND
MAINLY MVFR/IFR VSBYS. ANY SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND BEGIN
TAPERING OFF TO MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, LIKELY NEAR OR JUST BEFORE 18Z FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NY FRIDAY MORNING,
THOUGH THE STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD INITIALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE NEAR AND SOUTH OF KDKK. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND
SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE. PEAK GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM KDKK-KBUF/KIAG INLAND ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND 21Z, WITH GUSTS AROUND
40KTS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING BACK
OVER TO SNOW. WINDY, WITH WESTERLY GUSTS 40-50KTS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN NY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWERS. WINDY.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN. WINDY.
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. WINDY.
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW EAST OF BOTH LAKES. BREEZY.
MARINE
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF GALE FORCE WINDS.
THE FIRST OF THESE WILL COME BETWEEN FRIDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY...WITH A SECOND ROUND THEN FOLLOWING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
PLEASE NOTE, MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
CONTINUE TO BE ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE
FORECAST.
HYDROLOGY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND
A HALF WERE OBSERVED OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS. WARMER WEATHER
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS RESULTED IN SNOW MELT, WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE BLACK RIVER BASIN. SIGNIFICANT
SNOWPACK AND SWE REMAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ONGOING
SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL. THE BLACK RIVER WILL LIKELY FLOOD
STARTING TONIGHT, WITH MINOR FLOODING LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND ON THIS SLOW RESPONDING RIVER.
WHILE A LOWER PROBABILITY ELSEWHERE, FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ON OTHER RIVERS THAT DRAIN THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NYZ001-002-010>012-085.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NYZ003>005-013-014-020-021.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR NYZ006>008.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NYZ019.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LOZ042-062.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LOZ043>045-063>065.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK/HSK/JM/PP
AVIATION...JJR/PP
MARINE...JJR/PP
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/JJR
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