729
FXUS61 KBUF 130728
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
328 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8
AM SATURDAY MORNING FOR WYOMING, CHAUTAUQUA, CATTARAUGUS, AND
SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TURNING VERY WINDY TODAY INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
FINGER LAKES REGION.
2) WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN
MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CONTINUED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO SATURDAY MORNING LEADING TO IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ERIE, THE TUG HILL, AND
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
3) A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
TEMPERATURE SWINGS, FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TURNING VERY WINDY TODAY INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION.
A COMPACT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
LOW WILL THEN PUSH A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EAST ACROSS WESTERN THEN
NORTHCENTRAL NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
AS IT SLIDES NORTHEAST AND PASSES JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS IT DOES SO, THE SYSTEM WILL BRIEFLY BECOME VERTICALLY
STACKED, CAUSING SOME WEAKENING FROM AROUND 990MB TO NEAR 1000MB.
WHILE AT PEAK STRENGTH THIS LOW WILL FEATURE AN IMPRESSIVE 70KT+ LLJ
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, THOUGH BY THE TIME IT REACHES LAKE HURON THE
JET WILL DIMINISH IN BOTH AREAL EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE TO AROUND 60 TO
65KTS, WHICH IS STILL QUITE STRONG. THIS INITIAL LLJ WILL BE LOCATED
ALONG THE SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPING UP THROUGH
THE MORNING UPON ITS ARRIVAL. AS THE JET REACHES WNY, THE ADDED
MECHANICAL MIXING FROM DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE
SHOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF WINDOW OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS (GUSTS UP
TO 55 TO 60 MPH) ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHIFTING WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS WNY WITH
THE REMNANTS OF THE LLJ STILL OVERHEAD. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN THE CAA REGIME WITH FUNNELING OF WINDS DOWN THE LONG AXIS
OF LAKE ERIE SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG SURFACE
WIND GUSTS 50-60MPH ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BRIEF LULL
IN THE PRECIP ACTIVITY ACROSS WNY IN BETWEEN THE FRONTS THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WHILE IT'S UNLIKELY WE'LL CLEAR OUT SUBSTANTIALLY,
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THAT EMERGE WILL ONLY FURTHER AID IN
THE MIXING DOWN OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL MAY RELAX A LITTLE BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ONCE THE FRONT MAKES SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS AWAY FROM
WNY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE BACK-END OF THE NOW WESTERLY LLJ
WHICH LOOKS TO WRAP BACK INTO WNY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT
WITHIN A NOW CAA REGIME. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE INITIAL JET
BEHIND THE FRONT. DESPITE A MINOR SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE EASTWARD
TRACK OF THE LOW, POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS A
SIZABLE FOOTPRINT OF WNY. ONCE THE LLJ MOVES THROUGH AND FURTHER
DIMINISHES TO THE EAST, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MORE SUBSTANTIALLY RELAX
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
OUTSIDE OF WNY, THE INCREASING WINDS ALOFT, DOWNSLOPE MIXING, THEN
FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING CAA SHOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BUT
SPORADIC ADVISORY-LEVEL GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OVERALL
THIS EVENT IS NOT A 'SLAM DUNK' FOR MUCH OF THE WARNING OR ADVISORY
AREA DUE TO THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND JET, AND
COMPARED TO HIGH WIND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE REGION, THE SURFACE LOW
TYPICALLY TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THUS, WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE SCALE FOR BOTH HEADLINE TYPES.
ONE OTHER POTENTIAL ISSUE...THE WINDS QUICKLY SNAPPING SOUTHWESTERLY
AND INCREASING ALONG LAKE ERIE TODAY COULD CAUSE FAST ICE ON THE
EASTERN END OF THE LAKE TO BEGIN MOVING AND PILING AGAINST SOME
AREAS AROUND THE BUFFALO HARBOR. WHILE THIS SETUP BEARS SOME
SIMILARITIES TO THE LAST BIG ICE SHOVE BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 2019, THE
STATIC LAKE ERIE WATER LEVEL IS ABOUT 2.5FT LOWER COMPARED TO THAT
YEAR WHICH WILL GREATLY HAMPER THE CHANCES FOR THIS EVENT TO HAVE
MUCH IMPACT. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND THUS NO LAKESHORE
FLOOD PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CONTINUED SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SATURDAY MORNING LEADING TO IMPACTFUL
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ERIE, THE TUG
HILL, AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
THE SAME CLIPPER SYSTEM AS DESCRIBED IN KEY MESSAGE (1) WILL ALSO
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE MORNING, STARTING OFF AS A WET SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN NY. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS, THOUGH
ARRIVAL TIME LOOKS TO BE AFTER THE PEAK MORNING COMMUTE. THE STRONG
MID-MARCH SUN SHOULD ALSO HELP MITIGATE IMPACTS TO ROADS AND KEEP
MOST OF THE INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION MAINLY CONFINED TO GRASSY
SURFACES. WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FORCE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 30S AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 40S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
AS THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, EXPECT P-TYPE TO START OFF AS SNOW
THERE AS WELL, LIKELY CHANGING OVER TO RAIN CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE,
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. P-TYPE WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW ACROSS
THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN DACKS WHERE 3 TO 6 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE BY LATE IN THE DAY. THESE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE AIDED BY AN AREA OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT RIGHT ON THE
NOSE OF THE WARM FRONT. MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO STILL HAS APPRECIABLE SNOW COVER, THUS THE HIGH MARCH SUN
ANGLE WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
850MB TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE -10C TO -12C RANGE TONIGHT.
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL HELP CONTRIBUTE TO LAKE ENHANCED AND
UPSLOPE SNOWS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 8 TO 12
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN DACKS TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, WITH
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. A WINTER STORM
WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON, LEWIS, AND OSWEGO COUNTIES
FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM SATURDAY.
THE SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THE LOW AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL
ALSO HAVE IMPACTS IN SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN NY, AND ESPECIALLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ERIE. THIS SMALL SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW DEEPER WRAPAROUND MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE LOW TO
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NY TONIGHT. SIMILAR TO LAKE ONTARIO, THIS
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL HELP CONTRIBUTE TO UPSLOPE SNOWS EAST OF
LAKE ERIE TONIGHT, WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH A
GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN LAKE ERIE REMAINS ICE COVERED. THIS HAS
BOOSTED SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ERIE INTO
THE 4 TO 7 INCH RANGE, WITH 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE SNOW
SHOWERS QUICKLY TAPER OFF. WITH THIS IN MIND, A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM SATURDAY
MORNING FOR WYOMING, CHAUTAUQUA, CATTARAUGUS, AND SOUTHERN ERIE
COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE TEMPERATURE SWINGS, FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
BECOME VERY AMPLIFIED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SATURDAY MORNING AND DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG RIDGING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN WHILE IT MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLE MEAN MSLP HAS THE LOW DEEPENING TO 990MB OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SNOW
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
RISE INTO THE 40S/50S AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS THE CHAUTAUQUA
RIDGE AND TUG HILL. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHARPEN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
STRONG FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. ENSEMBLE MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS MEAN 850MB WINDS 50 KNOTS WHEN THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, AND 40-50KNOTS REMAINING
OVERHEAD IN A POST-FRONTAL SET-UP. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG POST-
FRONTAL STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME,
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. GUSTY WINDS AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ARE LIKELY EAST OF BOTH LAKES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SNOW
INTENSITY AND BAND PLACEMENT AT THIS TIME. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST MID-WEEK AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS A LESS AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WITH TROUGHING PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NY TODAY, WITH SOME SNOW
MIXING WITH RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SNOW, AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIFR IN MODERATE SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AT KIAG/KBUF/ROC. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AND STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST
WIND GUSTS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE TO THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER WITH WIND GUSTS 50-60MPH AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE WITH 40-50MPH EXPECTED. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/LIFR IS
POSSIBLE, HOWEVER THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ERIE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWERS. WINDY.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN. WINDY.
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. WINDY.
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW EAST OF BOTH LAKES. BREEZY.
MARINE
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF GALE FORCE WINDS. THE FIRST
OF THESE WILL COME BETWEEN TODAY AND THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY, WITH A SECOND ROUND THEN FOLLOWING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
PLEASE NOTE, MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
CONTINUE TO BE ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE
FORECAST.
HYDROLOGY
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM PREVIOUS
RAINFALL AND LINGERING SNOWMELT. THE BLACK RIVER WILL LIKELY FLOOD
STARTING THIS MORNING, WITH MINOR FLOODING CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ON THIS SLOW RESPONDING RIVER.
WHILE A LOWER PROBABILITY ELSEWHERE, FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON
OTHER RIVERS THAT DRAIN THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NYZ001-002-010>012-085.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NYZ003>005-013-014-020-021.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR NYZ019.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
041.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR LOZ042-062.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LOZ044-045.
DISCUSSION...HSK/JM/PP
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...JM/JJR/PP
HYDROLOGY...HSK
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