492
FXUS61 KBUF 131905
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
305 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN ERIE, CATTARAUGUS, AND
WYOMING COUNTIES HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AND
EXTENDED THROUGH 11 AM SATURDAY.
A NEW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALLEGANY COUNTY
FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 11 AM SATURDAY.
THE WIND ADVISORY AND HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 11
AM SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TURNING VERY WINDY THROUGH TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE FINGER
LAKES REGION.
2) A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL CHANGE BACK OVER TO
SNOW TONIGHT, WITH IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.
3) A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
TEMPERATURE SWINGS, FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TURNING VERY WINDY THROUGH TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION.
GOES WV SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES A COMPACT
CLIPPER LOW MOVING EAST OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES, WHICH WILL GLIDE
JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND INTO THE OTTAWA VALLEY TONIGHT. AS IT
DOES SO, THE CURRENTLY 988MB LOW WILL WEAKEN TO AROUND 1000MB. THE
SYSTEM'S POWERFUL LLJ OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS PRODUCING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SFC WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-55KT RANGE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OHIO. AS THE LOW MOVES DEEPER INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING, THIS SAME JET WILL WEAKEN AS IT IS
DRAGGED INTO WNY, THOUGH STILL REMAIN STRONG IN THE 60-65KT RANGE.
THIS WILL BE WITHIN THE CAA REGIME BEHIND THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT,
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MOMENTUM TRANSFER DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WHILE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE QUITE BREEZY OUT AHEAD AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT, THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG WINDS WILL BE AS THE WESTERLY SHIFT OCCURS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NY. THIS IS WHEN PEAK GUSTS OF 50-
60MPH SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD, WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-50MPH
RANGE SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES PARTIALLY INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY.
HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES BY SEVERAL HOURS
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WIND PROFILES ALOFT DON'T SUBSTANTIALLY
DROP OFF UNTIL LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BY THE
EVENING, THERE SHOULD JUST BE A MODEST RESIDUAL BREEZE WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
ONE OTHER POTENTIAL ISSUE...THE WINDS SNAPPING SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASING ALONG LAKE ERIE TODAY COULD CAUSE FAST ICE ON THE EASTERN
END OF THE LAKE TO BEGIN MOVING AND PILING AGAINST SOME AREAS AROUND
THE BUFFALO HARBOR. WHILE THIS SETUP BEARS SOME SIMILARITIES TO THE
LAST BIG ICE SHOVE BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 2019, THE STATIC LAKE ERIE
WATER LEVEL IS ABOUT 2.5FT LOWER COMPARED TO THAT YEAR WHICH WILL
GREATLY HAMPER THE CHANCES FOR THIS EVENT TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT. IN
ADDITION, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG AS THE
PREVIOUS EVENT. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND THUS HAVE OPTED TO
CONTINUE FORGOING LAKESHORE FLOOD PRODUCTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CONTINUED SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SATURDAY MORNING LEADING TO IMPACTFUL
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ERIE, THE TUG
HILL, AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
THE SAME CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS DESCRIBED
IN KEY MESSAGE (1) WILL ALSO BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND IN SOME AREAS, THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE FIRST OF THESE ROUNDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM'S
WARM FRONT WHICH CAME IN THE FORM OF SNOW IS ALREADY MOVING OUT OF
WESTERN NY AND INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY WARMING BEHIND THIS AREA OF PRECIP WITH
INCOMING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY RAIN, THOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ACROSS WNY MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW AS THE
DOMINANT PTYPE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL IN THIS AREA WILL BE THIS EVENING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, CAUSING
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW 30S AND 20S. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL CAUSE SNOW SHOWERS WITH A RATHER NOTABLE AMOUNT
OF UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT TO BLOSSOM ACROSS MUCH OF WNY THROUGH THE
NIGHT, WITH THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND BATAVIA. THE HILLTOPS OF WYOMING
COUNTY, BEING GENERALLY MORE N-S ORIENTED, ARE EXPECTED TO PERFORM
THE BEST IN THIS SETUP WHERE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED
WITH THE DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE ALOFT.
HAVE CONVERTED THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR WYOMING, CATTARAUGUS AND
SOUTHERN ERIE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING WITH THIS UPDATE. SNOW
TOTALS TRENDED JUST A BIT HIGHER AND CLOSER TO LOW-END WARNING
RANGE, THOUGH THERE ARE ALSO CONCERNS WITH BLOWING SNOW GIVEN THE
STRONG WIND PROFILES AS DESCRIBED IN KEY MESSAGE (1). DRIFTING OF
THE EXISTING SNOWPACK SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN THE WETTER SNOW
CHARACTERISTIC, THOUGH THE SFC WINDS SHOULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANTLY
LIMITED VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE HEAVIER FALLING SNOW ESPECIALLY ON
THE RIDGETOPS. SHOULD BE NOTED HERE THAT WITHOUT THE UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT, THE LOWER TERRAIN AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND IN
SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY SHOULD ONLY SEE MINOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
TOTALS TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 2-4 OR 3-5 INCH RANGE.
FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION, THE FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS
ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUANCE, WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE REGION. THE THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE 850MB
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE -10C TO -12C RANGE TONIGHT. WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE WILL HELP CONTRIBUTE TO LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE SNOWS,
WITH 10 TO 18 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN DACKS
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE TEMPERATURE SWINGS, FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER WESTERN NY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL LEAVE MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS DEEPENING CYCLONE WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE FOR
DOWNSLOPING AREAS OFF OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND ALLEGANY MOUNTAINS
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF A NEAR RIDGETOP
INVERSION AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM MONDAY.
LOOKING AT MEMBERSHIP FROM THE GRAND ENSEMBLE (GEFS, EC, GEPS),
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH A DEEP SURFACE LOW TRACKING
JUST TO OUR WEST ACROSS MI NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC. WHILE THERE HAS
BEEN A TREND TOWARDS A DELAYED PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM MORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFTS IN THE TRACK, THIS STILL FALLS
WELL WITHIN LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY WITH PAST HIGH WIND EVENTS. GRAND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW >40% CHANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING BELOW
984MB MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER LAKE HURON THAT ONLY INCREASES AS IT
TRACKS FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE STRONGEST 850MB FLOW WITHIN THE CAA
ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATED TO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER MONDAY.
LATEST NBM PROBABILITY OF WIND GUST EXCEEDING 48 KT MONDAY IS 50-75%
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND AROUND 50%
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO NEAR WATERTOWN. IT IS WORTH NOTING, THESE
PROBABILITIES HAVE DROPPED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS, LIKELY
TURN TO THESE MINOR SHIFTS IN THE SYSTEM'S TRACK AND RESULTANT WIND
FIELD.
WHILE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL INITIALLY BE
RAINFALL MONDAY, 850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO CRASH TOWARDS -16 TO -19 DEGC
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH LAKE-INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING 6-8 KFT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE LAKE ONTARIO REMAINS WIDE
OPEN AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LIKELY PROVIDING A NICE UPSTREAM
CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON, THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING WHAT
MAY DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE ERIE. THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE
REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED, BUT THERE IS AN AREA OF OPEN WATER
CLOSER TO LONG POINT THAT MAY PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LATE SEASON
LAKE SNOWS IN WESTERN NY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER WESTERN NY TERMINALS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW AREAS
TURNING TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THAT MAY TEMPORARILY IMPROVE
VISIBILITIES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION TYPE
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY IMPROVE TO MVFR CEILINGS.
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NY TERMINALS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR KBUF AND KIAG THAT WILL
LIKELY SEE 45-50 KT GUSTS AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWERS. WINDY.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN. WINDY.
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. WINDY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW EAST OF BOTH
LAKES. BREEZY.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER WESTERN NY TERMINALS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW AREAS
TURNING TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THAT MAY TEMPORARILY IMPROVE
VISIBILITIES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION TYPE
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY IMPROVE TO MVFR CEILINGS.
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NY TERMINALS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR KBUF AND KIAG THAT WILL
LIKELY SEE 45-50 KT GUSTS AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWERS. WINDY.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN. WINDY.
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. WINDY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW EAST OF BOTH
LAKES. BREEZY.
MARINE
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF GALE FORCE WINDS. THE FIRST
OF THESE WILL IMPACT THE LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY,
WITH A SECOND ROUND THEN FOLLOWING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
PLEASE NOTE, MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
CONTINUE TO BE ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE
FORECAST.
HYDROLOGY
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM PREVIOUS
RAINFALL AND LINGERING SNOWMELT. THE BLACK RIVER WILL LIKELY FLOOD
STARTING THIS MORNING, WITH MINOR FLOODING CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ON THIS SLOW RESPONDING RIVER.
WHILE A LOWER PROBABILITY ELSEWHERE, FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON
OTHER RIVERS THAT DRAIN THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ001-002-
010>012-085.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014-
020-021.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ012-020-
085.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ020.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LOZ030.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ042-062.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045-
063>065.
DISCUSSION...BROTHERS/HSK/JM/PP
AVIATION...BROTHERS
MARINE...JM/JJR/PP
HYDROLOGY...HSK
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