173
FXUS61 KBUF 141119
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
719 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO UPDATES WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) VERY WINDY INTO THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE FINGER LAKES
REGION, THEN WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
2) IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF LAKE ERIE INTO THIS MORNING, AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
3) ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
4)COLD WEATHER RETURNS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...VERY WINDY INTO THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
FINGER LAKES REGION, THEN WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
COMPACT CLIPPER LOW IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE OTTAWA VALLEY AROUND
DAYBREAK. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM A CURRENT
PRESSURE OF 997MB TO AROUND 1000MB BY 12Z, ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST
SEGMENT OF THE ATTENDANT STRONG LLJ WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FROM
NOW THROUGH THIS MORNING. WITH OUR AREA NOW WITHIN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM'S TRAILING COLD FRONT,
RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFICIENT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER DOWN TO THE SURFACE WILL HELP PRODUCE OUR STRONGEST OVERALL
WIND GUSTS THROUGH MID MORNING OR SO.
WITHIN THE HIGH WIND WARNING AREA, 55-65 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED, HIGHEST CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE. FURTHER INLAND, GUSTS TO 45-55
MPH WILL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WIND ADVISORY AREA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY RELAX FROM WEST TO EAST, ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON, LEAVING BEHIND JUST A MODEST RESIDUAL BREEZE BY EVENING.
ONE OTHER POTENTIAL ISSUE...THE WINDS SNAPPING SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASING ALONG LAKE ERIE TODAY COULD CAUSE FAST ICE ON THE EASTERN
END OF THE LAKE TO BEGIN MOVING AND PILING AGAINST SOME AREAS AROUND
THE BUFFALO HARBOR. WHILE THIS SETUP BEARS SOME SIMILARITIES TO THE
LAST BIG ICE SHOVE BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 2019, THE STATIC LAKE ERIE
WATER LEVEL IS ABOUT 2.5FT LOWER COMPARED TO THAT YEAR WHICH WILL
GREATLY HAMPER THE CHANCES FOR THIS EVENT TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT. IN
ADDITION, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG AS THE
PREVIOUS EVENT. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND THUS HAVE OPTED TO
CONTINUE FORGOING LAKESHORE FLOOD PRODUCTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ERIE INTO THIS MORNING, AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THE SAME CLIPPER SYSTEM DESCRIBED IN KEY MESSAGE (1) WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. UPSLOPE SNOWS TOOK A BIT LONGER TO GET GOING EAST OF LAKE
ERIE, HOWEVER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE STARTED TO
INTENSIFY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN ERIE,
WYOMING, AND NORTHERN CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES WHERE THE WINTER STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM THIS MORNING FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 3-6 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS HAS LOWERED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS
A BIT, HOWEVER WITH ONGOING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THESE AREAS, WILL LEAVE HEADLINES AS IS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE VERY
STRONG WINDS EXACERBATING THE CONDITIONS. THE LOWER TERRAIN AREAS OF
WESTERN NY WILL SEE A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES FOR MOST SPOTS.
FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION, THE FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS
ON TRACK SO FAR WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SNOW
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF
THE AFTERNOON WITH AN ADDITIONAL 6-12 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG
HILL AND WESTERN DACKS BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER TODAY AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
WITH A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY MORNING, AND AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SUNDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. A DEEPENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES, WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ACROSS FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE, AND TUG HILL. RIDGETOPS
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION MAY ALSO TAP INTO THE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WITH AN ENSEMBLE
MEAN MSLP OF 984MB AS THE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC MONDAY.
DURING THIS TIME, AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT, AND STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS
IT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY. THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR, HOWEVER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THESE WINDS COULD STILL BE AVAILABLE TO MIX DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
STRONG MIXING IN COLD AIR ADVECTION IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF WIND
GUSTS OVER 45 MPH NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. LATEST
NBM PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH MONDAY IS 50-60%
ACROSS IMMEDIATE LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIND HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. INSTABILITY MAY HAVE TIME TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
MAY RESULT IN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 4...COLD WEATHER RETURNS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A
DIVE MONDAY NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -16 TO -19 DEGC
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH LAKE-INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING 6-8 KFT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A BROAD AREA OF 40KNOTS AT 850MB AND A WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY. WHILE LAKE ONTARIO
REMAINS WIDE OPEN AND WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW LIKELY PROVIDING A NICE
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON, THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING WHAT MAY DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE ERIE. THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF LAKE ERIE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED, BUT THERE IS AN AREA OF
OPEN WATER CLOSER TO LONG POINT THAT MAY PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
LATE SEASON LAKE SNOWS IN WESTERN NY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A MIX OF MAINLY MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS FOUND ACROSS THE TERMINALS
CURRENTLY, WITH SOME IFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
NORTHCENTRAL NY, WITH LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR VSBYS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE LAKES WHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS
FALLING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MAINLY MVFR ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH DAYBREAK. STRONG W TO SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS (GUSTS OF 40-50 KNOTS) EXPECTED TO BE ALONG A
ROUGH KDKK-KBUF/KIAG-KROC AXIS THROUGH MID MORNING.
LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE LAKES THIS MORNING
WILL WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH MVFR (LIFR/IFR IN HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW) THIS
MORNING EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING, THEN WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN. LLWS POSSIBLE.
BECOMING WINDY.
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. WINDY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW EAST OF BOTH
LAKES. BREEZY.
MARINE
A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING ROUNDS OF GALE FORCE WINDS. THE FIRST OF
THESE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
TODAY, WITH A SECOND ROUND THEN FOLLOWING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
PLEASE NOTE, MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
CONTINUE TO BE ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE
FORECAST.
HYDROLOGY
THE BLACK RIVER IS IN MINOR FLOOD FROM DADVILLE TO WATERTOWN THIS
MORNING. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST AT WATERTOWN TODAY AND
SLOWLY FALL THROUGH TONIGHT. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS SEGMENT OF THE BLACK RIVER.
LOOKING AHEAD, A WARM-UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION. RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50-1.00" ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TUG HILL
REGION, AND THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOWMELT WILL LIKELY CAUSE
RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS SHOW
LOCATIONS ON THE BLACK RIVER RISING BACK NEAR ACTION STAGE, AND A
VERY LOW CHANCE OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ001>003-
010>012-020-085.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ004-005-013-
014-021.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ006>008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ012-
020-085.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ020.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LOZ030.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LOZ042-062.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ043>045-
063>065.
DISCUSSION...BROTHERS/HSK/JM/JJR/PP
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/JJR/PP
HYDROLOGY...HSK
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