345
FXUS61 KBUF 150019
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
819 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NEXT
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS STARTING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
2) COLD WEATHER RETURNS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK A -3 TO -4SD SURFACE LOW FROM THE CORN BELT
STATES NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH THE SURFACE
LOW LIKELY TO DEEPEN TO AROUND 980 MB. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE FARTHER WESTWARD WITH THE SURFACE LOW/LLJ...TAKING A TRACK
ALONG WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AS OPPOSED TO NEAR LAKE HURON IN
RECENT DAYS.
FOR OUR REGION SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITHIN A WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME SUNDAY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE LLJ
STRENGTHENING ALOFT. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST, NOT ONLY
FOR THE TYPICAL CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND NORTHWEST FACE OF THE TUG HILL,
BUT ALSO OFF THE HILLS OF SW NYS AND FINGER LAKES REGION. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT GUSTS COULD REACH 60 MPH FOR THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND TUG
HILL...WITH HIGHER END ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS ELSEWHERE OFF THE BOSTON
HILLS/WYOMING HILLS AND HILLS THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES. THESE GUSTS
WILL WEAKEN NORTH OF THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY AND CLOSER TO THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE...FOR WHICH LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
SOUTH - SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE DO NOT HAPPEN
FREQUENTLY FOR OUR REGION. A COMPARISON EVENT IS THE JANUARY 9TH
2024 EVENT...BUT EVEN THAT EVENT WAS MUCH DEEPER WITH THE SURFACE
LOW BY 8 - 10 MB, A CLOSER TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW TO LAKE HURON,
AND A STRONGER AND LOWER LLJ. AS SUCH, WE SHOULD NOT SEE AS MUCH
WIDESPREAD WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON - NIGHT AS
THE JANUARY 9TH 2024 EVENT...WITH HIGH WIND WATCHES RESERVED FOR
JUST THE TYPICAL WINDIER LOCATIONS OF THE DOWNSLOPE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE
AND TUG HILL.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION MONDAY MORNING, LIKELY
JUST AFTER 12Z...WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL TUMBLE TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 60S MONDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE 30S BY MONDAY EVENING. THOUGH MIXING
HEIGHTS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT, THE CORE OF THE LLJ RESIDES IN
THE WARM SECTOR, WITH A NOW 45 TO 55 KNOT LLJ SUPPORTING SOUTHWEST
WIND GUSTS MONDAY INTO THE 35 TO 50 MPH RANGE. WILL CARRY THE WIND
HEADLINES THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY TO COVER THESE GUSTY WINDS. ANOTHER
LOW LEVEL WILL INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE GUSTY
WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ANOTHER FACTOR WITH WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CONVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY MAY HAVE TIME TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND MAY RESULT IN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDER ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY CONVECTIVE WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COLD WEATHER RETURNS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A DIVE MONDAY NIGHT WITH 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOW NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS BY TUESDAY
MORNING. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH LAKE-INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS RISING 6-8 KFT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A BROAD AREA OF 40 KNOTS AT 850 HPA AND A WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY. WHILE LAKE ONTARIO
REMAINS WIDE OPEN AND WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW LIKELY PROVIDING A NICE
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON, THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING WHAT MAY DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE ERIE. THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF LAKE ERIE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED, BUT THERE IS AN AREA OF
OPEN WATER CLOSER TO LONG POINT THAT MAY PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
LATE SEASON LAKE SNOWS IN WESTERN NY THROUGH MIDWEEK. WHILE SNOW
ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE ON
THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR TWO EACH PERIOD, EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO A
HEALTHIER BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD BRING HEADLINES WORTH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE TUG HILL REGION.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AREA OF 4-5K FOOT CLOUDS EXITING NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING.
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN QUICKLY FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL ARRIVE AFTER 08Z, LIFTING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS LOOKS LIKE A 4-6 HOUR
PERIOD WHERE MVFR OR EVEN IFR WILL DEVELOP ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS. THE
SNOW COULD END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR RAIN. ONCE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS, CONDITIONS SHOULD GO VFR QUICKLY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SURFACE GUSTS
OF 25-35 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDY. LLWS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. WINDY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW EAST OF BOTH
LAKES. BREEZY. ANY IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LOCALIZED TO WITHIN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING THE RETURN OF GALE FORCE WINDS. THIS SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK ACROSS MI SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST TOWARDS QUEBEC MONDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ON
LAKE ERIE STARTING MONDAY MORNING AND ON LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING.
PLEASE NOTE, MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
CONTINUE TO BE ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE
FORECAST.
HYDROLOGY
THE BLACK RIVER CONTINUES TO BE IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE FROM DADVILLE
TO WATERTOWN. THE RIVER CRESTED AT WATERTOWN EARLIER THIS MORNING AT
10.5 FT AND HAS SLOWLY BEEN FALLING, BUT WILL REMAIN AT OF JUST
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS SEGMENT OF THE BLACK RIVER.
LOOKING AHEAD, A WARM-UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION. RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50-1.00" ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TUG HILL
REGION, AND THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOWMELT WILL LIKELY CAUSE
RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS SHOW
LOCATIONS ON THE BLACK RIVER RISING BACK NEAR ACTION STAGE, BUT A
VERY LOW CHANCE (<5%) OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
NYZ001>006-010>014-020-021.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NYZ007-008-019-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR LEZ040-041.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 11 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR LOZ030.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR LOZ042-062.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
LOZ043>045-063>065.
DISCUSSION...BROTHERS/HSK/THOMAS/TMA
AVIATION...BROTHERS/TMA
MARINE...BROTHERS/JM/TMA
HYDROLOGY...BROTHERS/HSK/TMA
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