172
FXUS61 KBUF 150926
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
526 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH WIND WARNINGS WERE ISSUED FOR CHAUTAUQUA, SOUTHERN ERIE,
JEFFERSON, AND LEWIS COUNTIES.
ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
2) COLD WEATHER RETURNS WITH A POSSIBLE ROUND OF SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING, QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY
DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH GUSTY WINDS LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO AMPLIFY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE KANSAS WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. INITIALLY, A WARM FRONT
ALONG A TIGHT THERMAL GRAIDENT WILL SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AND A COATING TO AN INCH
IS EXPECTED.
MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LOW TODAY. A 60-70KNOT LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AT THE
SURFACE. THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, WARM ADVECTION SET-
UP WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET STAYING ALOFT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND AND NORTH-NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES WILL SUPPORT STRONG DOWNSLOPE GUSTY WINDS ALONG LOCATIONS
SUCH AS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY AND THE
NORTHWEST SLOPES OF THE TUG HILL. WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE
EXPECTED IN THESE LOCATIONS AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OFF THE HILLS OF WESTERN NY AND THE
FINGER LAKES REGION REACHING THE FOOTHILLS OF THE LAKE PLAINS
TONIGHT, AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL CUT THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY, WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RUSH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
WARM, MOIST AIR WILL BE PRESENT AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN AREA
OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN NY MONDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES EAST,
AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE
FINGER LAKES REGION TO CENTRAL NY. TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY FALL
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES, AND MOISTURE
LINGERS, RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN NY AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
BACK TO THE WINDS, THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT, BUT THEN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND PRESSURE
RISES WITH THE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL JET (ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE STRONG)
OVERHEAD WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS.
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE TO THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE TROPOPAUSE IS
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO ABOUT 500MB MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COLD WEATHER RETURNS WITH A POSSIBLE ROUND OF
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING, QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH GUSTY WINDS LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOW ITS' EASTWARD PROGRESS LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING WHILE ALSO TAKING ON ANABATIC CHARACTERISTICS.
THE DECELERATION OF THE FRONT WILL BE OWED TO A COUPLE OF REASONS:
THE SHARPENING OF THE MID AND UPPER TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION IN TANDEM WITH A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING NORTH ALONG THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL NY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL SUPPORT A CONSIDERABLE BOOST IN QPF EAST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
FRONT BECOMING INCREASINGLY ANABATIC, A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE SYNOPTIC
QPF WILL FALL ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE FRONT, WITH A SWATH OF
POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL WET, HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS A PORTION OF
THE AREA LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW AND THE EXACT LOCATION WHERE
THIS WILL OCCUR REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS TIME, SPECIFICALLY
GIVEN THAT THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE NORTHWARD MOVING WAVE
WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN WHEN AND WHERE THIS OCCURS.
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS (ESPECIALLY BY MID MARCH STANDARDS) QUICKLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUNGING INTO
THE -16C TO -20C RANGE BY TUESDAY MORNING. LINGERING SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE WITHIN THE LARGE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH COMBINED WITH STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LAKE-INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO
7-9 KFT RIGHT THROUGH A SATURATED DGZ WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPMENT FROM LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. AN INITIAL W TO WSW FLOW WILL SEND LAKE BANDS E TO ENE OF THE
LAKES LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, BEFORE A SUBTLE SHIFT IN THE
WINDS TO WNW WILL SHIFT THE BANDS MORE ESE OF THE LAKES FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. WITH RESPECT TO ACCUMULATIONS, LAKE ONTARIO REMAINS WIDE OPEN
FOR BUSINESS WHILE THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE
COVERED, ALTHOUGH THERE A DECENT STRETCH OF OPEN WATER NORTH LONG
POINT THAT WILL BE IN PLAY. A LAKE HURON CONNECTION ALSO LOOKS TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED, FURTHER INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF IMPACTFUL LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE A CERTAINTY AT THIS POINT, CONFIDENCE IN EXACT PLACEMENT
AND RESIDENCY TIME OF THE BANDS IS STILL MODERATE AT BEST, WITH MORE
UNCERTAINTY OF WHAT THE CONTRIBUTION WILL BE FROM LAKE ERIE DUE TO
THE ICE COVER...THUS HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR HEADLINE-WORTHY LAKE
SNOWS IS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT, WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SAME TIME. THIS WILL
WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY END THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF BOTH LAKES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS FOR WINDS, A 35-45 KNOT LLJ WILL LINGER OFF THE DECK WITHIN THE
CAA REGIME ALLOWING GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL
DEPART TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING. A STRONG WARM FRONT IS QUICKLY
APPROACHING THE REGION AND A REGION OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NY THROUGH 14Z AND ACROSS
AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO (10Z-16Z.) A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR IS EXPECTED IN SNOW THIS MORNING. FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. A MIX OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND GUSTY WINDS IN
DOWNSLOPE AREAS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TAF SITES WILL HAVE
FREQUENT GUSTS 35-45KTS ACROSS WESTERN NY AND 40-50KTS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL NY INCLUDING KART/KGTB.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. WINDY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW EAST OF BOTH
LAKES. BREEZY. ANY IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LOCALIZED TO WITHIN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING THE RETURN OF GALE FORCE WINDS. THIS SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK ACROSS MI TONIGHT NORTHEAST TOWARDS QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT
WITH STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ON
LAKE ERIE STARTING MONDAY MORNING AND ON LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING.
PLEASE NOTE, MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
CONTINUE TO BE ICE COVERED. WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE
FORECAST.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
NYZ001>006-010>014-020-021.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR NYZ007-008.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR NYZ019-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR LOZ042-062.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
LOZ043>045-063>065.
DISCUSSION...HSK/JM
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK
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