841
FXUS61 KBUF 161800
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
200 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO WIND ADVISORIES,
WITH THE WIND ADVISORIES EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
2) COLD WEATHER WILL RETURN TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AREAWIDE, WITH ENOUGH SNOW TO IMPACT TRAVEL.
3) LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
4) SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS LATE THIS WEEK TO BRING LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
MULTIPLE COLD FRONTAL SEGMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EACH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE BRIEF ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS IN THE 45-55 MPH
RANGE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN WINDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWING THE
FINAL COLD FRONTAL SEGMENT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM
THE LAKE PLAINS. OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, ANOTHER
45-50 KNOT SPEED MAX IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING THROUGH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER, AND THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER ROUND OF 45-50 MPH
GUSTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE AREA OF PEAK GUSTS
WILL DEVELOP FIRST ON THE LAKE PLAINS, THEN SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
ALL HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A WIND ADVISORY, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WARNING CRITERIA DOWNSLOPE WINDS NOW OVER. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
FOR THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COLD WEATHER WILL RETURN TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AREAWIDE, WITH ENOUGH SNOW TO
IMPACT TRAVEL.
A STRONG FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL MATURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS TONIGHT, WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO WESTERN QUEBEC. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY THIS EVENING, WITH THE COLD
FRONT BECOMING MORE ANABATIC IN NATURE. A BAROCLINIC WAVE WILL
RIPPLE NORTH ALONG THE SLOWING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT, WITH INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE INCREASING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE
TOPPED BY STRONG FORCING FROM A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL
JET DYNAMICS, RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET
DURING THE TRANSITION AS A WEDGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR UNDERCUTS THE
FRONTAL ZONE ALOFT. THERE MAY EVEN BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.
THE STRONG FORCING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. MUCH OF
THE SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AS A BURST OF
HEAVY, WET SNOW DEVELOPS THIS EVENING. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2-
4"/3-5" RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE, A SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP MAY RESULT IN A FLASH FREEZE
SCENARIO, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW
OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP, AND SNOW BECOMES LOWER
DENSITY. WITH THIS IN MIND, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
AS THE FRONTAL WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA, AND A
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
FOLLOWING THE WIDESPREAD SNOW FROM THE FRONTAL WAVE, OUR ATTENTION
TURNS BACK TO THE MESOSCALE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING BY LATE
TONIGHT. OVERALL, THE SETUP LOOKS MUCH MORE FAVORABLE OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO THAN LAKE ERIE, WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND HIGHER INVERSION
HEIGHTS.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ON SOUTHWEST FLOW BY LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS WILL RISE TO NEAR 10K FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING, THEN REMAIN
THERE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE RAPIDLY DROPPING WEDNESDAY AS
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE BAND OF SNOW WILL INTENSIFY TUESDAY MORNING AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY, THEN DRIFT FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU THROUGH THE DAY, REACHING OSWEGO COUNTY BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES MAY REACH 2+ INCHES PER
HOUR AT TIMES. THE HIGH MARCH SUN ANGLE MAY DISRUPT BAND
ORGANIZATION DURING THE MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS AS STRONG
DIURNAL MIXING INTERFERES WITH THE CONVERGENCE STRUCTURES SUPPORTING
THE BAND.
TUESDAY NIGHT, WNW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL DIRECT A BAND OF LOCALLY
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY AND FAR
NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES MAY AGAIN REACH 2+ INCHES PER
HOUR IN THE MOST INTENSE BAND. THE BAND WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT LOCALIZED MAX ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-12" ACROSS THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU AND ALSO ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY AND FAR
NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY. THE REST OF THE AREA EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WILL SEE 3-5" FROM A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC SNOW TONIGHT AND THEN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW THEREAFTER. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS,
UPGRADED THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING.
OFF LAKE ERIE...
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL RISE TO 7-8K FEET TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE FALLING TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL, LESS
MOISTURE, WEAKER SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT, AND SHORTER FETCH WILL KEEP
THE LAKE ERIE LAKE SNOW WEAKER. THE BEST BANDING WILL LIKELY FOCUS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NW PA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF A SPOTTY FEW INCHES LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER FOLLOWING THE SYNOPTIC SNOW.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW IN LAKE EFFECT AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 4...SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS LATE THIS WEEK TO BRING LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW.
SEVERAL TROUGHS IN THE MEAN FLOW, THESE RIDING OVER THE DOME OF
HEAT/RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THESE WAVES WILL
LIMIT OVERALL PRECIPITATION WITH EACH EVENT. THERMAL PROFILES ARE
NEAR THE RAIN/SNOW POINT, WITH LIKELY SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
WHILE A RAIN SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE LAST OF
THESE WAVES ON SUNDAY NIGHT MAY DRAW A DEEPER COLD AIRMASS
SOUTHWARD...LEADING TO A COOL START FOR NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY
WILL BRING A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS TO OUR EASTERN REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, IN ADDITION TO A QUICK BURST OF WIND.
BEHIND THIS FRONT WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND WESTERLY THROUGH
THE NIGHT, WITH GUSTS REMAINING AROUND 40 KNOTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE (KBUF/KIAG/KROC) AND ALSO DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO
(KART)...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KNOTS ELSEWHERE.
ALSO BEHIND THIS FRONT A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE
TAF REGION, WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THIS FRONT, WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW
TO OUR REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH VISIBILITIES
LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR. AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO BLOW IN THESE STILL STRONG WINDS, LOWERING VISIBILITIES.
WHILE SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES WILL EASE BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z FOR
KBUF/KIAG AND KROC, UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES WILL CONTINUE
THE SNOW AND IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES NEAR KJHW AND KART THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS STILL AROUND 30 KNOTS
AT THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW
EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES. BREEZY. ANY IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE LOCALIZED TO WITHIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS RAMPING UP AND PERSIST AT
GALE FORCE ON THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MID-WEEK BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
WINDS AND SMALL WAVES. ICE ON LAKE ERIE HAS RETRACTED TO NOW JUST
ALONG THE ERIE COUNTY SHORELINE.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ001>006-010>014-
019>021-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR NYZ003-004-013-014-021.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ005-006.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR NYZ019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ020.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LOZ042.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LOZ042-062.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ043>045.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
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