565
FXUS61 KBUF 170621
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
221 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING.
2) WINTER-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, BRINGING
COLD AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
3) A FEW SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW
LATER THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. A BROAD AREA OF 40-50 KNOTS WITHIN A WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 KNOTS WILL PEAK ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE
AND LAKE ONTARIO AS WELL AS ALONG THE LAKESHORES. WINDS ALOFT WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH TODAY AND WIND GUSTS WILL DROP OFF BY THIS EVENING. A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 11AM
THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WINTER-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT, BRINGING COLD AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
QUEBEC THIS MORNING. A SHARP, NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
AND DEEP MOISTURE HAS LED TO AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SNOW FROM THE
FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA.
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND MOIST,
WESTERLY FLOW WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE MINUS
TEENS THIS MORNING WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY, AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S, WITH
WIND CHILLS AROUND ZERO TODAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS TONIGHT. FRESH SNOW AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING MAY RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR ZERO OR BELOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TUG HILL REGION TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 20S TODAY, WITH LOWS
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
BEHIND THE SYNOPTIC SNOW THIS MORNING, A UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO
7-9K FEET WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE FLOW WILL VEER THROUGH THE
DAY AND THE BAND WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION BEFORE
REACHING NORTHERN CAYUGA AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY BY EVENING.
SNOWFALL RATES MAY REACH 2+ INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE HIGH MARCH
SUN ANGLE MAY DISRUPT BAND ORGANIZATION DURING THE MIDDAY THROUGH
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS STRONG DIURNAL MIXING INTERFERES WITH THE
CONVERGENCE STRUCTURES SUPPORTING THE BAND.
THE LAKE BAND IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ACROSS NORTHERN CAYUGA AND
SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY TONIGHT, BEFORE WEAKENING TOWARDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES MAY AGAIN REACH 2+ INCHES PER HOUR IN THE
MOST INTENSE BAND.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-10" ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU
AND ALSO ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY AND FAR NORTHERN
CAYUGA COUNTY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE AREA EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL SEE 2-5" FROM A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC SNOW EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THEREAFTER. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
OFF LAKE ERIE...
A WESTERLY FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER THIS MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES WILL NOSE NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SNOW WILL
BECOME WEAK AND DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM TODAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TODAY, WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN
LAKE EFFECT AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A FEW SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SOME
RAIN/SNOW LATER THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND.
LATER THIS WEEK AND DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND A BROAD...BUT
GRADUALLY FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHILE A BROAD/LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. BETWEEN THURSDAY
AND SATURDAY A FEW WEAK/PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER-
SCALE MEAN TROUGH AND BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO OUR REGION. WITH RESPECT TO PTYPE...MARGINAL
THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT MORE OF A A RAIN/SNOW MIX
INITIALLY...WITH SNOW MORE COMMON AT NIGHT/ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND RAIN MORE COMMON BY DAY/ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SURFACE LOW MAY ENTER
OUR REGION. DEPENDING UPON ITS EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH (BOTH OF
WHICH REMAIN IN QUESTION AT THIS VANTAGE POINT)...THIS COULD BRING
EITHER A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR PREDOMINANTLY RAIN ON ITS FRONT SIDE...
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO SEASONABLY COLDER AIR AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A STRONG COLD FRONT NEAR THE HUDSON VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
TO EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. A MOIST, CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A MIX OF
MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVES EAST
AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. COVERAGE WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME FOCUSED EAST OF THE LAKES, MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION.
DIURNAL MIXING AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY BANDS FROM UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS TODAY.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED, HOWEVER IFR OR BELOW IS
EXPECTED IN SNOW SHOWERS.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN EAST OF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT,
HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT KJHW. A LAKE EFFECT
BAND WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT, AND SHOULD
BE BETWEEN KROC AND KART TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
A STRONG SOUTHWEST-WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKES THIS
MORNING. GALE FORCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING,
WITH GALE FORCE LINGERING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN
END OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MID-WEEK BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
WINDS AND SMALL WAVES. ICE ON LAKE ERIE HAS RETRACTED TO NOW JUST
ALONG THE ERIE COUNTY SHORELINE.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ001>008-
010>014-019>021-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ001>004-010>014-021-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ005-
006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ007-008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ019-
020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ020.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LOZ030.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LOZ042-062.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043>045-
063>065.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK/HSK/JJR
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/HSK
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