039
FXUS61 KBUF 171702
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
102 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
2) LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT.
3) A FEW SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW
LATER THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST IN THE 35-45 MPH RANGE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSE TO THE LAKES AND
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AND WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, WITH A COMMENSURATE DECREASE IN
SURFACE WIND GUSTS. A MORE NOTABLE DROP OFF IN WINDS WILL OCCUR
AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL MIXING AND FURTHER REDUCTION
OF WINDS ALOFT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH TONIGHT.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS CENTERED ON THE TUG HILL PLATEAU
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO
THE WNW THIS AFTERNOON, CARRYING THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW SOUTHWARD
INTO OSWEGO COUNTY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE BAND MOVES
SOUTH.
CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT, WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWERING LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DENDRITIC GROWTH
THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON WILL SUPPORT
BAND ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT
BEFORE THE UPSTREAM CONNECTION IS LOST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BAND WILL REACH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY BY EARLY
EVENING, THEN REMAIN IN THAT GENERAL AREA OVERNIGHT WITH MINOR
NORTH/SOUTH OSCILLATIONS. THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO CLIP
NORTHERN CAYUGA AND FAR NORTHEAST WAYNE COUNTY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES MAY REACH 2" PER HOUR AT TIMES IN THE MOST INTENSE
PORTION OF THE BAND. EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-10" IN THE
MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
OSWEGO COUNTY.
THE LAKE BAND WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE, DISRUPTING
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS. ANY REMAINING
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL END
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
OFF LAKE ERIE...
A BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER, WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO AN
INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. CONDITIONS ARE OVERALL LESS FAVORABLE OFF
LAKE ERIE, WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWERING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2" ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER DUSTING TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION LOCALLY. THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DISRUPT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND DISSIPATE
THE BAND OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A FEW SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SOME
RAIN/SNOW LATER THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND.
SEVERAL TROUGHS IN THE MEAN FLOW, THESE RIDING OVER THE DOME OF
HEAT/RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THESE WAVES WILL
LIMIT OVERALL PRECIPITATION WITH EACH EVENT. THERMAL PROFILES ARE
NEAR THE RAIN/SNOW POINT, WITH LIKELY SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND AT NIGHT, WHILE A RAIN SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
THE LAST OF THESE WAVES ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT MAY DRAW A DEEPER
COLD AIRMASS SOUTHWARD...LEADING TO A COOL START FOR NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
COLD WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS, EXPECT MAINLY
VFR WITH A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS, WITH A MORE NOTABLE DROP IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL MIXING.
OFF LAKE ERIE, A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
LIFR CONDITIONS, INCLUDING KJHW AT TIMES. EXPECT THE BAND TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WITH A FEW LEFTOVER
SNOW SHOWERS LASTING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO, A MORE INTENSE BAND OF SNOW OVER THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO
OSWEGO COUNTY BY EARLY EVENING WITH LOCAL LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS
WITHIN THE BAND. TONIGHT, THE BAND WILL FOCUS ON OSWEGO COUNTY WITH
LOCAL LIFR CONTINUING NEAR KFZY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL RAPIDLY
WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
MID TO LATE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR WET SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
MARINE
GALE FORCE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST. A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER AFTER
THE GALES, WITH IMPROVING WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A LESS ACTIVE PATTERN THAN RECENT
DAYS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ004.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ005-
006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ007-008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ019-
020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043>045-
063>065.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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