204
FXUS61 KBUF 180043
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
843 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
2) LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH TONIGHT.
3) A FEW SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW
LATER THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE EARLY
THIS EVENING, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSE TO THE LAKES AND ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME AREAS
OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AND WINDS ALOFT
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH A COMMENSURATE DECREASE IN
SURFACE WIND GUSTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH TONIGHT.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR HEAVIER SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT, WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWERING LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DENDRITIC GROWTH
THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON WILL SUPPORT
BAND ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT
BEFORE THE UPSTREAM CONNECTION IS LOST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BAND WILL DROP BACK SOUTH TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY
THROUGH THE EVENING, THEN REMAIN IN THAT GENERAL AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
MINOR NORTH/SOUTH OSCILLATIONS. THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO
CLIP NORTHERN CAYUGA AND FAR NORTHEAST WAYNE COUNTY AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES MAY REACH 2" PER HOUR AT TIMES IN THE MOST
INTENSE PORTION OF THE BAND. EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-9"
IN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY.
THE LAKE BAND WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE, DISRUPTING
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS. ANY REMAINING
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL END
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
OFF LAKE ERIE...
CONDITIONS ARE OVERALL LESS FAVORABLE OFF LAKE ERIE, WITH INVERSION
HEIGHTS LOWERING THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD OVER
THE LAKE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER DUSTING TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION LOCALLY. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DISRUPT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND
DISSIPATE THE LAKE SNOW OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A FEW SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SOME
RAIN/SNOW LATER THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND.
SEVERAL TROUGHS IN THE MEAN FLOW, THESE RIDING OVER THE DOME OF
HEAT/RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THESE WAVES WILL
LIMIT OVERALL PRECIPITATION WITH EACH EVENT. THERMAL PROFILES ARE
NEAR THE RAIN/SNOW POINT, WITH LIKELY SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND AT NIGHT, WHILE A RAIN SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
THE LAST OF THESE WAVES ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT MAY DRAW A DEEPER
COLD AIRMASS SOUTHWARD...LEADING TO A COOL START FOR NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
COLD WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS, EXPECT MAINLY
VFR WITH A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING
HOURS.
OFF LAKE ERIE, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO IFR CATS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT FOR KJHW.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO, A MORE INTENSE BAND OF SNOW WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL OSWEGO COUNTY THIS EVENING WITH LOCAL LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS
WITHIN THE BAND. TONIGHT, THE BAND WILL FOCUS ON OSWEGO COUNTY WITH
LOCAL LIFR CONTINUING NEAR KFZY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL RAPIDLY
WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
MID TO LATE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR WET SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH
WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST. A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
IMPROVING WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A LESS ACTIVE PATTERN THAN RECENT
DAYS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ004.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ005-
006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LOZ042>045.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK/SW/THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SW
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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