055
FXUS61 KBUF 180618
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
218 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING.
2) A FEW SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW
LATER THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A WNW FLOW CONTINUES TO SPRAY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE AS
OF THIS WRITING...WITH A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW STILL CONTINUING EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE...WITH
THE LATTER PRIMARILY AFFECTING FAR NORTHEASTERN WAYNE...FAR
NORTHERN CAYUGA...AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES. EXPECT THE MAIN
BAND TO REMAIN IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH
THE LAKE SNOWS IN GENERAL ALSO WEAKENING AND RETRACTING BACK
TOWARD THE LAKE AS BUILDING LOW- LEVEL RIDGING INTRODUCES
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SHEAR AND A LOWERING CAP...AND ALSO BRINGS
ABOUT THE DEMISE OF THE SUPPORTING UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE
HURON. EXPECT THE LES TO DIMINISH TO SOME REMNANT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS BY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH THESE THEN
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE AND BREAKING UP DURING THIS
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY.
OFF LAKE ERIE A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT HAS ALREADY ALLOWED THE
LAKE SNOWS THERE TO DEVOLVE INTO A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN THESE DIMINISHING TO JUST SOME LEFTOVER FLURRIES BY
AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER BY MID
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A FEW SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SOME
RAIN/SNOW LATER THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
EMBEDDED FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL
SUPPORT A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BEGINNING LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS WNY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPS
ALONG ITS EASTERN FLANK...FOLLOWED BY A MORE GENERAL LOW CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
STRONGER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NY AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. DUE TO THE QUICK NATURE OF THESE WAVES, PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.
AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND,
ANOTHER DEEPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIRMASS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LEFTOVER WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND LOCALIZED IFR/
MVFR EAST OF LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH SUNRISE IN
TANDEM WITH AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOWERING CAP.
ANY LEFTOVER FLURRIES AFTER THAT TIME WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE AND FALL APART BY MID MORNING...WITH SOME
REMNANT MVFR/LOW VFR CLOUDS POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY CROSSING THE KBUF/
KIAG TERMINALS BETWEEN LATER THIS MORNING AND MIDDAY.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A WNW FLOW CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE...WITH
LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE SNOWS AND ATTENDANT LIFR/IFR STILL
HANGING ON IN THE VICINITY OF KFZY. THESE WILL ALSO WEAKEN IN PLACE
WHILE RETRACTING BACK TOWARD THE LAKE THROUGH SUNRISE AS BUILDING
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING INTRODUCES INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SHEAR AND A
LOWERING CAP. ANY REMNANT LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN RAPIDLY
LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE LAKE AND BREAK UP THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH SOME REMNANT MVFR/LOW
VFR CLOUDS FROM THESE POTENTIALLY BRUSHING THE KART TERMINAL AROUND
18Z.
OUTSIDE OF THE ABOVE GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TODAY...BEFORE LOWERING TO LOWER-END VFR/MVFR TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT SPREADS THICKENING/LOWERING CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION.
OVERNIGHT...A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES WILL
BECOME POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...HOWEVER THESE ARE NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR WET SNOW
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO CENTRAL NY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING...WITH A
COMMENSURATE DECREASE IN WINDS AND WAVE ACTION BRINGING AN END TO
ANY LINGERING ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL THEN LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THANKS TO A MUCH LESS ACTIVE PATTERN
THAN IN RECENT DAYS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE LATER TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS FAR EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE A PERIOD
OF MODERATELY BRISK SOUTHERLIES APPEARS POSSIBLE.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ004.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ005-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LOZ042>045.
DISCUSSION...HSK/JJR
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/JJR
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