272
FXUS61 KBUF 181044
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
644 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE REMAINING WINTER HEADLINES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO HAVE
BEEN CANCELLED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES WILL LIFT NORTH AND FALL APART THIS MORNING.
2) A FEW SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW
LATER THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST AND EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WILL LIFT NORTH AND FALL APART THIS MORNING.
AS OF THIS WRITING...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO HAS WEAKENED INTO SOME REMNANT LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY SOME SCATTERED/DISORGANIZED SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOUND
EAST OF LAKE ERIE. ALL OF THIS WILL LIFT NORTH AND FALL APART THIS
MORNING AS WINDS BACK...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
SHEARED...AND INVERSION HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL...WITH ONLY SOME
VERY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. WITH THIS IN
MIND...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO HAVE BOTH BEEN CANCELLED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A FEW SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SOME
RAIN/SNOW LATER THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
EMBEDDED FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL
SUPPORT A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BEGINNING LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS WNY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPS
ALONG ITS EASTERN FLANK...FOLLOWED BY A MORE GENERAL LOW CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
STRONGER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NY AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. DUE TO THE QUICK NATURE OF THESE WAVES, PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.
AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND,
ANOTHER DEEPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIRMASS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF THIS WRITING...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO HAS WEAKENED INTO SOME REMNANT LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS AND
IFR...WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED/DISORGANIZED SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FOUND EAST OF LAKE ERIE. ALL OF THIS WILL LIFT NORTH AND
FALL APART THIS MORNING AS WINDS BACK...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SHEARED...AND INVERSION HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL. THIS
BEING SAID...REMNANT MVFR/LOW VFR CLOUD COVER FROM THE LAKE BANDS
MAY STILL CROSS THE KBUF/KIAG TERMINALS BETWEEN LATER THIS MORNING
AND MIDDAY...AND BRUSH THE KART TERMINAL AROUND 18Z.
OTHERWISE GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY...BEFORE
LOWERING TO LOWER-END VFR/MVFR TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT SPREADS
THICKENING/LOWERING CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION. OVERNIGHT...A FEW
SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...HOWEVER THESE ARE NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR WET SNOW
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
MARINE
WINDS AND WAVES WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THANKS TO A MUCH LESS ACTIVE PATTERN
THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS FAR EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE A PERIOD OF MODERATELY BRISK SOUTHERLIES APPEARS LIKELY...
HOWEVER THE GREATEST WAVE ACTION LOOKS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO
CANADIAN WATERS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HSK/JJR
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/JJR
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