806
FXUS61 KBUF 050617
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
217 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MUCH COOLER TODAY, BRISK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
2) ACCUMULATING SNOW STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT, HIGHLIGHTING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR GREATEST ACCUMULATION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MUCH COOLER TODAY, BRISK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
A COLD FRONT, AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS, WILL EXIT OUR REGION EARLY
THIS EASTER MORNING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES STEADY, OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THEM THROUGH THE DAY.
WITHIN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION, INCREASING MIXING HEIGHTS AND A STILL
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A 40 KNOT LLJ AROUND 2K FEET
TO MIX DOWN, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 45 MPH. THESE WINDS,
PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON, WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO UNDER 25 MPH BY
MONDAY MORNING.
LIFT AHEAD OF A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE PASSAGE OF A
SECONDARY SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THAT MAY MIX WITH A
LITTLE SNOW WITHIN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ACCUMULATING SNOW STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT,
HIGHLIGHTING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR GREATEST
ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WILL DROP TO AROUND -8 TO -9C SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY, AND THEN DOWN TO -13 TO -15C TUESDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE MEAN MID LEVEL FLOW.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MINOR AND MAINLY
RESERVED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE REGION, FALLING SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE WITH NBM
PROFILES DEPICTING ONE TO TWO INCHES ACROSS OUR REGION, WITH UP TO 4
INCHES ON THE HILL TOPS OF SW NYS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL END BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SOLAR EFFECTS OF A STRONG APRIL SUN ANGLE.
HIGHS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG
ASCENT AND A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A WIDE BAND OF RAIN
ALONG THE FRONT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED WITH CHANCES OF
OCCURRENCE AT ANY TERMINAL LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
BE COMMON WITH THE RAIN AND ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE LAST OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY MID MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MOST PERSISTENT SHOWERS WILL FOCUS ALONG
THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM THE NIAGARA PENINSULA EASTWARD
ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY. PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY FALL
IN THE FORM OF RAIN, THOUGH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES OR SMALL HAIL MAY
MIX IN WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN A MIX OF MVFR/IFR. ADDITIONALLY, IT WILL BE
QUITE WINDY WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS AREAWIDE AND UP
TO 35 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE.
MARINE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS MORNING, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND A STILL TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING INCREASING
WINDS AND WAVES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WINDS AND WAVES ARE
LIKELY TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA, THIS EVENING ON THE
ICE FREE WATERS OF LAKE ERIE, WHILE NOT TILL LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING ON LAKE ONTARIO. THE STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
WILL ALSO BRING SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO BOTH THE NIAGARA AND SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER TODAY.
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING
ELEVATED WINDS AND WAVES, ESPECIALLY TO LAKE ONTARIO LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY, WITH SCA AGAIN LIKELY.
HYDROLOGY
A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SALMON RIVER IN
NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY. HIGH FLOWS WILL CONTINUE AS WATER IS
RELEASED FROM THE SALMON RIVER RESERVOIR DUE TO RUNOFF FROM
RECENT HEAVY RAIN AND SNOWMELT. THE WATER EXPECTED WATER LEVELS
WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE CREEK AND
CREATE DANGEROUS CURRENTS. FISHERMAN SHOULD AVOID THE RIVER
UNTIL FLOWS SUBSIDE.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, PRODUCING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SOAKING RAINFALL. THE RAIN WILL RESULT IN MINOR
PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND WITHIN-BANK RISES
ON AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ANY MORE IMPACTFUL FLOODING.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LEZ020-040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
EDT THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-024.
DISCUSSION...THOMAS
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...THOMAS
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK
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