747
FXUS61 KBUF 051716
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
116 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER THROUGH MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN AND
WET SNOW SHOWERS.
2) SNOW EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WHILE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER THROUGH MONDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WITH GUSTS IN THE
25 TO 35 MPH RANGE IN MOST AREAS AND UP TO 40 MPH IN THE NORMAL
WINDY SPOTS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AROUND SUNSET, THEN DIMINISH FURTHER OVERNIGHT.
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE COMBINATION OF MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW, COLD AIR ALOFT, AND OCCASIONAL ENHANCED ASCENT FROM SHORTWAVES
PASSING THROUGH THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FROM
UPSLOPE FLOW, AND ALONG A LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE STRETCHING
FROM THE NIAGARA PENINSULA EASTWARD ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE NYS
THRUWAY. THIS EAST-WEST BAND OF SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE LAKE BREEZE DRIVEN CONVERGENCE BREAKS
DOWN. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE MAINLY RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS.
OVERNIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FOCUS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER, BRISTOL HILLS, AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO FROM UPSLOPE FLOW. PRECIP TYPE WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
MAINLY SNOW AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUE
TO COOL. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL IN MOST AREAS, WITH A COATING
POSSIBLE ON THE GRASS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.
MONDAY, A PASSING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND POCKET OF DEEPER MOISTURE
IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FROM WEST TO EAST
FROM MID MORNING THOUGH MID AFTERNOON, AND WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A
MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS. DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL ALSO
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ELSEWHERE, WITH
MAINLY SNOW FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THE HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY SEE A FRESH SLUSHY COATING ON
THE GRASS. WINDS WILL BE LOWER THAN TODAY, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY IN
THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SNOW EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
WHILE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING COLD AIRMASS TO THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY,
WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S, AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.
A LARGE SCALE TROUGHING PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME,
RESULTING IN AN ACTIVE PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED SFC LOW
CROSSING THE AREA WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS, WITH
WIDESPREAD, UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT ALL POSSIBLE. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BECOMING MORE
ORGANIZED AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS IN THE FORM OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY MIX WITH
AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE NIGHT.
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ALOFT TO -12C
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO,
LINGERING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE, THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND A TROUGH
ALOFT, LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND INTO THE START OF THE MORNING ON TUESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS
ON MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS
NORTH OF I90 TOWARD THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO, AND FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE UPSLOPING WILL
CONTINUE. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
LAKES, AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. ABOVE FREEZING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE SNOW WILL CUT DOWN ON SOME
OF THE ACCUMULATIONS.
SNOW WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS AWAY FROM
THE REGION AND COOL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO CAUSES LIGHT
SNOW TO CONTINUE. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA. SNOW WILL SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL AMONG GUIDANCE HOW
QUICKLY THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND CUTS DOWN ON THE LIGHTS SNOW.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTS IN
THE 20-30 KNOT RANGE IN MOST AREAS AND 30-35 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER DARK, THEN
DIMINISH FURTHER OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A DEEP TROUGH, MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW, AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A
MIX OF LOWER END VFR AND MVFR CIGS. THE MVFR CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE
FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR ANY AREAS OF ORGANIZED
SHOWERS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE
ALONG A LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE NIAGARA
PENINSULA EASTWARD ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY, WITH
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
WESTERN FINGER LAKES. OVERNIGHT, MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL FOCUS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN UPSLOPE AREAS, AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF LAKE ONTARIO AS SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPS. PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE MAINLY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS
EVENING TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY SNOW OVERNIGHT. ANY ORGANIZED
SHOWERS WILL BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBY, WITH MVFR IN RAIN AND IFR IN SNOW.
MONDAY, SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. THE BEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
FROM MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AND MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THAT AREA. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL
YIELD MAINLY SNOW AS A PRECIP TYPE, WITH SOME RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING
IN FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. VSBY WILL BE LOCALLY
MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW,
WITH A FEW POCKETS OF BRIEF MODERATE SNOW IN LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE.
FRIDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MARINE
MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ON LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO AS WELL AS THE NIAGARA RIVER AND SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON LAKE ERIE AND THE RIVERS
LATER THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ON LAKE ONTARIO.
A COMPACT LOW AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THIS FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
HYDROLOGY
A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SALMON RIVER IN
NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY. HIGH FLOWS WILL CONTINUE AS WATER IS
RELEASED FROM THE SALMON RIVER RESERVOIR DUE TO RUNOFF FROM
RECENT HEAVY RAIN AND SNOWMELT. THE EXPECTED WATER LEVELS WILL
NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE CREEK AND
CREATE DANGEROUS CURRENTS. FISHERMAN SHOULD AVOID THE RIVER
UNTIL FLOWS SUBSIDE.
WATER LEVELS WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MONDAY ON IRONDEQUOIT
CREEK IN THE EASTERN SUBURBS OF ROCHESTER. THIS WILL PRODUCE
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE CREEK, PARTICULARLY IN
ELLISON PARK. WATER MAY GET CLOSE TO BLOSSOM ROAD WHERE IT
PASSES THROUGH THE PARK. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
IRONDEQUOIT CREEK THROUGH MONDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020-
040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SLZ022-024.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK/SW
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK
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