804
FXUS61 KBUF 052349
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
749 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED POPS OVER AND NEAR LAKE ONTARIO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER THROUGH MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN AND
WET SNOW SHOWERS.
2) SNOW EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WHILE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER THROUGH MONDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS.
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE COMBINATION OF MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW, COLD AIR ALOFT, AND OCCASIONAL ENHANCED ASCENT FROM SHORTWAVES
PASSING THROUGH THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY.
AS OF EARLY EVENING...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING COINCIDENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE/SUBTLE
SURFACE TROUGH...WITH MAINLY RAIN AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A
HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW MIX TRANSITIONING OVER TO PRIMARILY SNOW
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. MEANWHILE STILL-BRISK WINDS GUSTING TO
25-35 MPH WILL ALSO DIMINISH OVER TIME.
OVERNIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FOCUS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER, BRISTOL HILLS, AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO FROM UPSLOPE FLOW. PRECIP TYPE WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
MAINLY SNOW AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUE
TO COOL. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL IN MOST AREAS, WITH A COATING
POSSIBLE ON THE GRASS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.
MONDAY, A PASSING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND POCKET OF DEEPER MOISTURE
IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FROM WEST TO EAST
FROM MID MORNING THOUGH MID AFTERNOON, AND WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A
MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS. DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL ALSO
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ELSEWHERE, WITH
MAINLY SNOW FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THE HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY SEE A FRESH SLUSHY COATING ON
THE GRASS. WINDS WILL BE LOWER THAN TODAY, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY IN
THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SNOW EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
WHILE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING COLD AIRMASS TO THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY,
WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S, AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.
A LARGE SCALE TROUGHING PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME,
RESULTING IN AN ACTIVE PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED SFC LOW
CROSSING THE AREA WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS, WITH
WIDESPREAD, UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT ALL POSSIBLE. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BECOMING MORE
ORGANIZED AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS IN THE FORM OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY MIX WITH
AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE NIGHT.
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ALOFT TO -12C
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO,
LINGERING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE, THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND A TROUGH
ALOFT, LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND INTO THE START OF THE MORNING ON TUESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS
ON MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS
NORTH OF I90 TOWARD THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO, AND FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE UPSLOPING WILL
CONTINUE. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
LAKES, AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. ABOVE FREEZING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE SNOW WILL CUT DOWN ON SOME
OF THE ACCUMULATIONS.
SNOW WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS AWAY FROM
THE REGION AND COOL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO CAUSES LIGHT
SNOW TO CONTINUE. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA. SNOW WILL SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL AMONG GUIDANCE HOW
QUICKLY THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND CUTS DOWN ON THE LIGHTS SNOW.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
DEEP TROUGHING AND COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR TO LOWER-END
VFR...WITH THE LOWER CEILINGS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND WITHIN/NEAR ANY SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY...WITH MVFR IN RAIN AND IFR IN SNOW.
IN TERMS OF THE PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS TONIGHT...AS OF EARLY
EVENING THESE ARE DRAPED FROM FAR WNY ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TO THE
VICINITY OF KART...WITH THESE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SINKING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING COINCIDENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE/SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH. BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
THE BULK OF ANY REMAINING SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT
DEVELOPS. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...MAINLY RAIN AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND A HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW MIX TO START THE EVENING
WILL ALSO TRANSITION OVER TO PRIMARILY SNOW FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MEANWHILE STILL-BRISK WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20-30 KNOTS WILL
ALSO DIMINISH OVER TIME TONIGHT.
ON MONDAY THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FROM MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN TANDEM
WITH AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
WITH A COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE PTYPE SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW...WITH
SOME RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW,
WITH A FEW POCKETS OF BRIEF MODERATE SNOW IN LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE.
FRIDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MARINE
MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ON LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO AS WELL AS THE NIAGARA RIVER AND SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON LAKE ERIE AND THE RIVERS
LATER THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ON LAKE ONTARIO.
A COMPACT LOW AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THIS FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
HYDROLOGY
A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SALMON RIVER IN
NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY. HIGH FLOWS WILL CONTINUE AS WATER IS
RELEASED FROM THE SALMON RIVER RESERVOIR DUE TO RUNOFF FROM
RECENT HEAVY RAIN AND SNOWMELT. THE EXPECTED WATER LEVELS WILL
NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE CREEK AND
CREATE DANGEROUS CURRENTS. FISHERMAN SHOULD AVOID THE RIVER
UNTIL FLOWS SUBSIDE.
WATER LEVELS WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MONDAY ON IRONDEQUOIT
CREEK IN THE EASTERN SUBURBS OF ROCHESTER. THIS WILL PRODUCE
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE CREEK, PARTICULARLY IN
ELLISON PARK. WATER MAY GET CLOSE TO BLOSSOM ROAD WHERE IT
PASSES THROUGH THE PARK. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
IRONDEQUOIT CREEK THROUGH MONDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SLZ022-024.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK/JJR/SW
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK
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