350
FXUS61 KBUF 060602
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
202 AM EDT MON APR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS.
2) SNOW TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND WET SNOW
SHOWERS.
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SPILL INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY
AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. THE COMBINATION OF MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW, COLD AIR ALOFT, AND
OCCASIONAL ENHANCED ASCENT FROM SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE MEAN
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY SEE A SLUSHY COATING
GRASSY AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SNOW TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL BRING A REINFORCING COLD AIRMASS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY, WILL ONLY
REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S, AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
MOST AREAS.
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME, RESULTING
IN AN ACTIVE PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS, WITH
WIDESPREAD, UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE. AS THE
COLDER AIR DEEPENS LATER TONIGHT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS IN THE
FORM OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE NIGHT.
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ALOFT TO -12C
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO,
LINGERING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE, THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND A TROUGH
ALOFT, LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL LINGER INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS NORTH OF I90 TOWARD THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO, AND FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE UPSLOPING WILL
CONTINUE. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
LAKES, AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. ABOVE FREEZING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE SNOW WILL CUT DOWN ON SOME
OF THE ACCUMULATIONS.
THE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO, ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AN INCH OR LESS
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. SNOW WILL SCATTER OUT
THROUGH THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN AN ESTABLISHING DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF REGION THIS FORECAST PERIOD,
PROMOTING WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LOW END VFR CEILING HEIGHTS WITH
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNOW OR DAYTIME LIGHT RAIN.
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL END THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS, WHILE
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SNOW OR
RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE AROUND DAYBREAK AND THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. WHILE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOW, DAYTIME WARMING
WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR NOW DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MIX
WITH AND CHANGE TO LIGHT RAIN, FIRST ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN, AND
THEN HIGHER TERRAIN. A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
BETWEEN LAKE ERIE/ONTARIO IMPACTING KIAG AND KBUF THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AREA AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THIS DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WILL BECOME
ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE COOLING. IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL TAF SITES BEFORE THE
NIGHT ENDS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY THROUGH TODAY, THEN VEER TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER
TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS TONIGHT MAY REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW, WITH A FEW POCKETS OF
BRIEF MODERATE SNOW IN LAKE ENHANCEMENT. IMPROVING TO VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
MARINE
MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ON LAKE ONTARIO, WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
A COMPACT LOW AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THIS FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
HYDROLOGY
A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SALMON RIVER IN
NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY. HIGH FLOWS WILL CONTINUE AS WATER IS
RELEASED FROM THE SALMON RIVER RESERVOIR DUE TO RUNOFF FROM
RECENT HEAVY RAIN AND SNOWMELT. THE EXPECTED WATER LEVELS WILL
NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE CREEK AND
CREATE DANGEROUS CURRENTS. FISHERMAN SHOULD AVOID THE RIVER
UNTIL FLOWS SUBSIDE.
WATER LEVELS WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH TODAY ON IRONDEQUOIT CREEK
IN THE EASTERN SUBURBS OF ROCHESTER. THIS WILL PRODUCE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE CREEK, PARTICULARLY IN ELLISON PARK.
WATER MAY GET CLOSE TO BLOSSOM ROAD WHERE IT PASSES THROUGH THE
PARK. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR IRONDEQUOIT CREEK
THROUGH TODAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LOZ043>045.
DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...TMA
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