915
FXUS61 KBUF 061727
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
127 PM EDT MON APR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BLUSTERY AND COLD WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
2) WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER RETURN STARTING WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BLUSTERY AND COLD WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
A DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ADJACENT
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND, WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE MEAN
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED ASCENT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE. THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COMPACT SURFACE CLIPPER LOW MOVING OVER LAKE ONTARIO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN AND WET SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
ACROSS WESTERN NY AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. TONIGHT, EXPECT A WEST
TO EAST INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS. AN INITIAL
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR
ALOFT ARRIVES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. INCREASING NORTHWEST
FLOW TUESDAY MORNING WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND
UPSLOPE FLOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES, WITH SNOW SHOWERS STILL FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
20S AREAWIDE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SLICK SPOTS
LIKELY ON UNTREATED SURFACES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY, WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALLOWING THE SNOW
SHOWERS TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO, EXPECT TOTALS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING OF A COATING TO 2" IN MOST AREAS, WITH SOME SPOTTY 3-
4" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOWER 30S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 20S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE A SOLID 15-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR APRIL 7.
WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE MAY BE A SHORT DURATION OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER RETURN
STARTING WEDNESDAY.
INCREASED RIDGING AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL START TO WARM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY, WHEN AFTERNOON
HIGHS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE WARM AIR ADVECTION, WARMING TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL STARTING THURSDAY. CONSERVATIVELY TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AT
LEAST THE LOW TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY, WITH
SOME MID/UPPER 50S POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ABOVE TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY, HOWEVER,
EVEN THEN, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE DRIER SIDE FOR THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA, BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NY AREAS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND ADJACENT GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND, MAINTAINING COLD,
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED ASCENT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE, WITH EACH PRODUCING AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN AND WET SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NY AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. VFR WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE TIME, WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN A
FEW OF THE SHOWERS.
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY, A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, BRINGING A MORE
ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
A RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. EXPECT CIGS/VSBY TO
DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AREA OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
WITH A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR FROM WEST TO EAST.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AS
THE LOW PASSES BY, FIRST ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN FOR THE REST OF LAKE ONTARIO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO BOTH LAKES. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ON LAKE ERIE, AND TUESDAY NIGHT ON LAKE ONTARIO AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
HYDROLOGY
A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SALMON RIVER IN
NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY. HIGH FLOWS WILL CONTINUE AS WATER IS
RELEASED FROM THE SALMON RIVER RESERVOIR DUE TO RUNOFF FROM
RECENT HEAVY RAIN AND SNOWMELT. THE EXPECTED WATER LEVELS WILL
NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE CREEK AND
CREATE DANGEROUS CURRENTS. FISHERMAN SHOULD AVOID THE RIVER
UNTIL FLOWS SUBSIDE.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LOZ043>045.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK/SW
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK
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