510
FXUS61 KBUF 070005
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
805 PM EDT MON APR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE SALMON RIVER IN OSWEGO
COUNTY...OTHERWISE THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BLUSTERY AND COLD WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
2) WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER RETURN STARTING WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BLUSTERY AND COLD WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
A DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ADJACENT
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND, WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE MEAN
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED ASCENT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE. THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COMPACT SURFACE CLIPPER LOW MOVING OVER LAKE ONTARIO.
TONIGHT, EXPECT A WEST TO EAST INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS. AN INITIAL RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.
INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY MORNING WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES, WITH SNOW
SHOWERS STILL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SLICK SPOTS LIKELY ON UNTREATED SURFACES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY, WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALLOWING THE SNOW
SHOWERS TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO, EXPECT TOTALS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING OF A COATING TO 2" IN MOST AREAS, WITH SOME SPOTTY 3-
4" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOWER 30S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 20S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE A SOLID 15-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR APRIL 7.
WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE MAY BE A SHORT DURATION OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER RETURN
STARTING WEDNESDAY.
INCREASED RIDGING AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL START TO WARM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY, WHEN AFTERNOON
HIGHS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE WARM AIR ADVECTION, WARMING TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL STARTING THURSDAY. CONSERVATIVELY TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AT
LEAST THE LOW TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY, WITH
SOME MID/UPPER 50S POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ABOVE TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY, HOWEVER,
EVEN THEN, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE DRIER SIDE FOR THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA, BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NY AREAS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SCATTERED RAIN AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS WITHIN THE KBUF/KIAG-KROC
CORRIDOR WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND DIMINISH THROUGH MID
EVENING...WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITHIN
THESE...PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF KIAG.
OTHERWISE...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY, WITH AN ATTENDANT,
MORE-ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS CROSSING THE AREA IN A SIMILAR
MANNER. PTYPE WITH THESE WILL INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/
SNOW MIX EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BY
LATER TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FLIGHT
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
WITH A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN ITS WAKE...WITH THESE CONTINUING
TO SUPPORT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL THEN BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE BALANCE OF TUESDAY, BRINGING AN END TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG WITH A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AS
THE LOW PASSES BY, FIRST ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN FOR THE REST OF LAKE ONTARIO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO BOTH LAKES. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ON LAKE ERIE, AND LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT ON LAKE
ONTARIO AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
HYDROLOGY
RELEASES FROM THE SALMON RIVER RESERVOIR DECREASED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT NOTABLY LOWER LEVELS THROUGH
ALL OF TUESDAY. IN TURN...THIS HAS ALLOWED THE RIVER TO FALL BELOW
LEVELS SUPPORTIVE OF MINOR LOW LYING FLOODING DOWNSTREAM...THEREBY
ALLOWING THE FLOOD ADVISORY TO BE CANCELLED. THIS SAID...FLOWS
WITHIN THE RIVER ITSELF REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE...AND FISHERMEN
SHOULD THUS CONTINUE TO AVOID GOING INTO THE RIVER UNTIL FLOWS
SUBSIDE.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LOZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LOZ044-045.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK/SW
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
HYDROLOGY...JJR
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