300
FXUS61 KBUF 070610
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
210 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY LEAD TO SLICK CONDITIONS DURING THE
COMMUTE THIS MORNING.
2) WARMING TREND STARTING WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY LEAD TO SLICK
CONDITIONS DURING THE COMMUTE THIS MORNING.
A COMPACT CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO EARLY
THIS MORNING SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF RAIN/WET
SNOW SHOWERS, WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY WILL
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKES, WITH SNOW SHOWERS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE. SNOW TOTALS THROUGH THIS MORNING SHOULD BE
MINOR FOR THE MOST PART, WITH A COATING TO 2" IN MOST AREAS, BUT
SOME SPOTTY 3-4" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
UNTREATED ROADS MAY BECOME SLICK IN SPOTS FOR THE COMMUTE THIS
MORNING, AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING ALONG WITH MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WARMING TREND STARTING WEDNESDAY.
INCREASED RIDGING AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL START A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS TO THE EAST A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ESE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT,
THEN THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY THIS MORNING WHILE DRAGGING AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE PROCESS. EXPECT AT
LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN SNOW SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ERIE
(KJHW). EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS WITH SOME IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF
IFR CIGS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH.
A PERIOD OF MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS (IFR/BRIEF LIFR) LOOKS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (KART) VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THIS
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE FROM KROC TO KART THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT BEFORE QUICKLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST FROM
MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW PASSES BY, FIRST ON
LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND THEN FOR THE REST OF LAKE
ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO BOTH LAKES. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON ON LAKE ERIE, AND BY TONIGHT ON LAKE
ONTARIO AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ044-045.
DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...TMA
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