999
FXUS61 KBUF 071107
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
707 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY LEAD TO SLICK CONDITIONS DURING THE
COMMUTE THIS MORNING.
2) WARMING TREND STARTING WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY LEAD TO SLICK
CONDITIONS DURING THE COMMUTE THIS MORNING.
A COMPACT CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO EARLY
THIS MORNING SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF RAIN/WET
SNOW SHOWERS, WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY WILL
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKES, WITH SNOW SHOWERS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE. SNOW TOTALS THROUGH THIS MORNING SHOULD BE
MINOR FOR THE MOST PART, WITH A COATING TO 2" IN MOST AREAS, BUT
SOME SPOTTY 3-4" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
UNTREATED ROADS MAY BECOME SLICK IN SPOTS FOR THE COMMUTE THIS
MORNING, AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING ALONG WITH MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WARMING TREND STARTING WEDNESDAY.
INCREASED RIDGING AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL START A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS TO THE EAST A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY THIS
MORNING WHILE DRAGGING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE PROCESS.
EXPECT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN SNOW SHOWERS
AS THE FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS AREAS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO, WITH SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ERIE (KJHW). EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS
WITH SOME IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH.
A PERIOD OF MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS (IFR/BRIEF LIFR) LOOKS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (KART) THIS MORNING WITH THE
CENTER OF THE LOW PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THIS REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FROM KROC TO KART
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE
QUICKLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MAINLY
MVFR TO LOW-END VFR CIGS THIS MORNING BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW PASSES BY, FIRST ON
LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND THEN FOR THE REST OF LAKE
ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO BOTH LAKES. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON ON LAKE ERIE, AND BY TONIGHT ON LAKE
ONTARIO AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LOZ042-044-045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ043.
DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...TMA
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