797
FXUS61 KBUF 071721
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
121 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
2) NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SNOW SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES LASTING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COMPACT CLIPPER LOW WILL
MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON, WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT RAPIDLY EXITING THE AREA. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
WESTERN FINGER LAKES WILL QUICKLY END BY MID AFTERNOON. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO, WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BY MID AFTERNOON AND THEN END BY LATE
AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A COATING
ON GRASSY SURFACES, WITH THE WARMING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH APRIL SUN
ANGLE GREATLY REDUCING ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL DESPITE BELOW FREEZING
AIR TEMPERATURES.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS ALLOWING FOR
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE TEENS IN MOST
AREAS, WITH ANY LOWER 20S LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES. THESE
VALUES ARE A SOLID 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND WEEK IN
APRIL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING
FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION TO BEGIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM NICELY AFTER A VERY COLD START, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS AND MID 40S FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH A RIDGE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT LEAST NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES, WITH SOME WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE. AT TIMES A ZONAL FLOW OR BRIEF PASSING
TROUGH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN
PASSING COLD FRONTS COOL TEMPERATURES FROM WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. UNLIKE TODAY AND THE PAST FEW DAYS, THESE
PASSING COLD FRONTS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN AIRMASS THAT IS NOT
NEARLY AS COLD. AS STRONG SURFACE HIGHS TRACK ACROSS AND EAST OF THE
AREA THURSDAY AND LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 10 TO AT
TIMES 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THESE PASSING
SURFACE HIGHS.
THE PASSING COLD FRONT FOR LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COMPACT CLIPPER LOW WILL
MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON, WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT RAPIDLY EXITING THE AREA. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES WILL QUICKLY END BY MID
AFTERNOON. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO BRIEFLY
MODERATE SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BY MID AFTERNOON AND THEN END BY LATE
AFTERNOON, WITH A RETURN TO VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN DROP OFF MORE
NOTABLY AROUND SUNSET.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
MARINE
A COMPACT CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLIES IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WILL DIMINISH ON LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING ON LAKE ONTARIO WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS. THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ042-
045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ043-044.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK/SW
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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