019
FXUS61 KBUF 072339
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
739 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
2) NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT, WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS ALLOWING FOR
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE TEENS IN MOST
AREAS, WITH ANY LOWER 20S LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES. THESE
VALUES ARE A SOLID 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND WEEK IN
APRIL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING
FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION TO BEGIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM NICELY AFTER A VERY COLD START, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS AND MID 40S FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH A RIDGE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT LEAST NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES, WITH SOME WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE. AT TIMES A ZONAL FLOW OR BRIEF PASSING
TROUGH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN
PASSING COLD FRONTS COOL TEMPERATURES FROM WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. UNLIKE TODAY AND THE PAST FEW DAYS, THESE
PASSING COLD FRONTS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN AIRMASS THAT IS NOT
NEARLY AS COLD. AS STRONG SURFACE HIGHS TRACK ACROSS AND EAST OF THE
AREA THURSDAY AND LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 10 TO AT
TIMES 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THESE PASSING
SURFACE HIGHS.
THE PASSING COLD FRONT FOR LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DIRECTLY OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT BEHIND A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. AS OF 2330Z THERE REMAINS
SOME LOW VFR CLOUD DECKS AND FLURRIES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER, THOUGH THESE WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT
THROUGH THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE ALL OR MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THROUGH THE 00Z
TAF CYCLE, WITH JUST A MINOR INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM
THE WEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, BECOMING SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LLWS POSSIBLE ACROSS FROM KROC WESTWARD.
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BREEZY S/SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS
POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
MARINE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AND A RESIDUAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND AN
EARLIER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED AS OUTLINED BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS.
THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BRINGING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042-
045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043-
044.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK/PP/SW
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/PP
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