184
FXUS61 KBUF 080534
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
134 AM EDT WED APR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SHOWERS FRIDAY, BEFORE A WARMING
TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SHOWERS FRIDAY, BEFORE
A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
BRINGING A BAND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE LIMITED, AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BLOCKS
GULF MOISTURE FROM MOVING NORTHWARD. THIS WILL LIMIT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS, WITH NO HYDRO
CONCERNS EXPECTED.
A BRIEF DIP IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE A WARMING TREND BRINGS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND PLENTIFUL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TO START THE 06Z TAF CYCLE WILL PROVIDE
WIDESPREAD FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SHIFT EAST INTO EASTERN
NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY, BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING WHERE IT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED THROUGH TONIGHT
KEEPING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS INTACT ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTHCENTRAL NY WITH PATCHY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD CROSSING OVER THE
AREA AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTING TO INCREASE TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK WILL ALSO BE INCREASING, WHICH MAY
BRING MARGINAL LLWS CONDITIONS TO THE WESTERN NY TERMINALS LATE IN
THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THE CORE THE STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LLJ ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BREEZY S/SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS
POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT, WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO.
EVEN THOUGH THE WIND WILL BE MAINLY AN OFFSHORE, A ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...TMA
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