427
FXUS61 KBUF 081059
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
659 AM EDT WED APR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SHOWERS FRIDAY, BEFORE A WARMING
TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SHOWERS FRIDAY, BEFORE
A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
BRINGING A BAND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE LIMITED, AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BLOCKS
GULF MOISTURE FROM MOVING NORTHWARD. THIS WILL LIMIT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS, WITH NO HYDRO
CONCERNS EXPECTED.
A BRIEF DIP IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE A WARMING TREND BRINGS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND PLENTIFUL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TO START THE 12Z TAF CYCLE WILL PROVIDE
WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
DAY, BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING WHERE IT
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS INTACT ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL NY WITH
PATCHY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD CROSSING OVER THE AREA AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK WILL ALSO BE INCREASING,
WHICH MAY BRING MARGINAL LLWS CONDITIONS TO THE WESTERN NY TERMINALS
TONIGHT AS WELL, HOWEVER THE CORE THE STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LLJ ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BREEZY S/SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS
POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT, WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO.
EVEN THOUGH THE WIND WILL BE MAINLY AN OFFSHORE, A ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...TMA
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