147
FXUS61 KBUF 081827
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
227 PM EDT WED APR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
OCCLUDED LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS JAMES BAY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA. INITIALLY, A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, AND DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEST MOISTURE
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH, WITH A FEW SPOTS OF UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN NY.
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA. A
SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT WITH MOISTURE
DEEPENING ALONG A TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. EMBEDDED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH
EXPECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL 0.25-0.50" FRIDAY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN A DIP IN TEMPERATURES.
WARM AIR ADVECTION THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER NEW YORK STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL STAY ALOFT OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING, DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT IN
MORE FREQUENT WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY S/SW
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT, WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO.
EVEN THOUGH THE WIND WILL BE MAINLY AN OFFSHORE, A ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK/TMA
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