098
FXUS61 KBUF 090020
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
820 PM EDT WED APR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN OCCLUDED LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS JAMES
BAY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA.
INITIALLY, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, AND DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY. MODEST MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH, WITH A FEW SPOTS OF UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN
NY.
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA. A
SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT WITH MOISTURE
DEEPENING ALONG A TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. EMBEDDED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH
EXPECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL 0.25-0.50" FRIDAY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN A DIP IN TEMPERATURES.
WARM AIR ADVECTION THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY AIR
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL STAY ALOFT OVERNIGHT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING, DAYTIME
MIXING WILL RESULT IN MORE FREQUENT WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY S/SW
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT, WITH LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BRINGING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. EVEN THOUGH THE WIND
WILL BE MAINLY AN OFFSHORE, A ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT FOR THE EASTERN END OF LAKE
ONTARIO, AND IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY FOR THE REST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
LAKE ERIE.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
LOZ044-045.
DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK/TMA
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