894
FXUS61 KBUF 090554
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
154 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WINDY AND WARMER TODAY, WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS LATE TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS FRIDAY, BEFORE A
WARMING TREND LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WINDY AND WARMER TODAY, WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW
SHOWERS LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN S/SW WINDS TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A 40-
45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD THIS MORNING, BUT POOR LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL PREVENT FULL MIXING. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE IN
DOWNSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE, AND ON THE NORTH SLOPES
OF OTHER TERRAIN BARRIERS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT PEAK GUSTS IN
THE 30-40 MPH RANGE, WITH WINDS BACKING OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AND A BOOST OF SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THE DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 65-70
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY, AND LOWER 60S FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO A
VERY DRY AIRMASS, WITH A SOLID BAND OF SHOWERS UPSTREAM LIKELY
WEAKENING AND BECOMING SCATTERED AS IT MOVES INTO THE INCIPIENT DRY
AIRMASS. EXPECT SPOTTY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS THE
WEAKENING FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN FAR SOUTHWEST NY.
OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER, THEN BEGIN
TO MOVE BACK NORTH AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY BRING A FEW
MORE SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NY LATE TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY, BEFORE A WARMING TREND LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UPSTREAM, A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PRESS EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE AN ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS IT RIDES NORTHEAST ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED STALLED BOUNDARY. COUNTERCLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE
SURFACE WAVE WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SNAP BACK JUST A BIT
TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. MID LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE THE SURFACE WAVE
MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL FORCE THE BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL NY AS A COLD FRONT BRINGING THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY FRIDAY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS
SOUTH OF THE AREA. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE WITH 0.20" TO 0.40" EXPECTED.
THE MAJORITY OF A FAIRLY STOUT LLJ WILL RESIDE IN THE WAA REGIME,
THUS LIMITING MIXING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, DAYTIME HEATING
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE MIXING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR AREA WHERE THERE WILL LIKELY BE LESS CLOUD COVER THROUGH AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN WITH
GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH I-90.
OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONTAL
SEGMENT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, WITH GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WILL THEN
SEE A DAY-TO-DAY WARMING TREND, SOARING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SSW WINDS TODAY, WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35
KNOT RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY, WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS THICKENING AND
LOWERING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST PA AND SOUTHWEST NY WILL SUPPORT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THIS EVENING NEAR KJHW. CIGS/VSBY WILL STAY
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH ANY RESTRICTIONS LOCALIZED TO
NEAR ANY MODERATE SHOWERS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL OVERNIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING, WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NY. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
LATE TONIGHT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS LIKELY.
MARINE
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING GUSTY SSW WINDS TODAY, WITH NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WINDS ON LAKE ERIE, WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO, AND THE EAST END OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS THE FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF
THE LAKES OVERNIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
FIRE WEATHER
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED TODAY.
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING IN
THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE TODAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL THEN
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A MORE
MOIST AIRMASS ARRIVES JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH UNEVEN
COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH TONIGHT. A MORE WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ044-045.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK/JM
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
FIRE WEATHER...HITCHCOCK
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