723
FXUS61 KBUF 091815
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
215 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FIRE WEATHER RISK WAS ELEVATED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WINDY AND WARMER TODAY, WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS LATE TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS FRIDAY, BEFORE A
WARMING TREND LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WINDY AND WARMER TODAY, WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW
SHOWERS LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IS SITUATED BETWEEN AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AND A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION. THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND
LAKE ONTARIO, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF
DOWNSLOPE WINDS, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE
REGION. MINOR SNOW PACK ON THE TUG HILL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S TODAY.
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN EXTENDS SOUTH FROM LOW PRESSURE
OVER JAMES BAY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE
REGION BEFORE STALLING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODEST MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS ENTERING WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS WILL BE FIGHTING A DRY AIRMASS AS THEY MOVE
EASTWARD AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR
WESTERN NY AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING. AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY, BEFORE A WARMING TREND LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
INITIALLY, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY AND THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. A SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-
WEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD. THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE COLD
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE AND ASCENT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY
EVENING. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.20" TO 0.40" EXPECTED.
THE MAJORITY OF A FAIRLY STOUT LLJ WILL RESIDE IN THE WAA REGIME,
THUS LIMITING MIXING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, DAYTIME HEATING
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE MIXING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR AREA WHERE THERE WILL LIKELY BE LESS CLOUD COVER THROUGH AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN WITH
GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH I-90.
OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONTAL
SEGMENT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, WITH GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WILL THEN
SEE A DAY-TO-DAY WARMING TREND, SOARING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO ALMOST 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON, DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EXITING
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. ADDITIONALLY, ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THERE ARE SOME
INCREASING CLOUD COVER, AS A LINE OF SHOWERS APPROACH. THIS ALL
BEING SAID, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN DOORSTEP WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, AND DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AS IT CROSSES THE AREA DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR
ALOFT. HOWEVER, ANY SHOWERS THAT REMAIN IN TACK THIS EVENING MAY
BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER NEAR KJHW.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR THIS EVENING, WITH ANY
RESTRICTIONS BEING LOCALIZED TO ANY MODERATE SHOWERS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, BEFORE EVENTUALLY
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY MORNING, WHERE A FEW MORE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE (MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK). SOME COOL AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL
SUPPORT CEILINGS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY... VFR/MVFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS LIKELY.
TUESDAY... VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY DUE TO A PASSING FRONT.
MARINE
GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTWEST WINDS ACROSS BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH
GUSTS UP TOWARDS 25 TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVERHEAD FROM EXITING HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. GUSTY WINDS WILL SOON CALM DOWN
ON LAKE ERIE AND LATER THIS EVENING ON LAKE ONTARIO AS THE FRONT
NEARS AND EVENTUALLY CROSSES THE AREA. AS SUCH, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL END BY 21Z, WHEREAS THE WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE STRONGER SIDE
ON THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE EVENING.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES HAS ELEVATED THE CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST
OF NEW ENGLAND AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
WILL SUPPORT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE TODAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS
ISSUED FOR AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE WEATHER THROUGH 5PM TODAY. A
LINE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY THIS
AFTERNOON AND DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH UNEVEN COVERAGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH TONIGHT. A MORE WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN
IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ044-
045.
DISCUSSION...HSK/JM
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ
FIRE WEATHER...HITCHCOCK/HSK
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